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付远, 杨洁帆, 刘汉华, 等. 2024. 基于集合预报的浙江省积层混合云人工增雨数值模拟研究[J]. 大气科学, 48(4): 1−15. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2211.22177
引用本文: 付远, 杨洁帆, 刘汉华, 等. 2024. 基于集合预报的浙江省积层混合云人工增雨数值模拟研究[J]. 大气科学, 48(4): 1−15. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2211.22177
FU Yuan, YANG Jiefan, LIU Hanhua, et al. 2024. Numerical Simulation of Convective-Stratiform Mixed Cloud Enhancement in Zhejiang Province Based on Ensemble Forecasting [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(4): 1−15. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2211.22177
Citation: FU Yuan, YANG Jiefan, LIU Hanhua, et al. 2024. Numerical Simulation of Convective-Stratiform Mixed Cloud Enhancement in Zhejiang Province Based on Ensemble Forecasting [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(4): 1−15. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2211.22177

基于集合预报的浙江省积层混合云人工增雨数值模拟研究

Numerical Simulation of Convective-Stratiform Mixed Cloud Enhancement in Zhejiang Province Based on Ensemble Forecasting

  • 摘要: 目前人工増雨催化数值模拟研究较少考虑环境场误差对模拟效果的影响,结论往往具有很大的不确定性。有鉴于此,本文将初始场扰动集合预报技术与包含催化模块的柱状云模式进行单向耦合(One Way Coupling),利用中尺度模式所提供包含环境场扰动误差的多组热力、微物理量廓线实时驱动柱状云模式,对2022年1月23日浙江省积层混合云降水过程进行多成员、单/多格点AgI催化数值试验,尝试从概率的角度探讨最佳播撒方案以及对应的增雨潜力。从单站(杭州站)的模拟效果来看,23日15:00(协调世界时)在3.6 km高度(−5.2°C)处使用AgI(碘化银催化剂量为1.2×10−7~1.2×10−4 g kg−1)播撒时所有集合成员均能够取得正増雨效果,其中采用1.2×10−5 g kg−1剂量时増雨率最大,所有成员的均值为4.67%,99%分位数为7.77%。在单点模拟中,初始场扰动对于过量播撒是否导致减雨的判断有很大影响,例如,播撒剂量增加至1.2×10−2 g kg−1后,超过50%的集合成员表现为减雨效果,但仍然有部分成员表现为増雨。针对这次过程,多格点催化试验表明增雨效果发生概率最优的区域位于浙西北和浙北北部区域,尤其在嘉兴东北部和临安附近,从概率预报的角度来说也往往对应着相对较高的平均过冷水含量和较低的冰晶数浓度均值。

     

    Abstract: Currently, the impact of environmental field errors on the simulation effect is hardly considered in seeding models, and uncertain conclusions are often drawn. Therefore, in this study, the ensemble forecast model by initial field perturbation is one-way coupled with the columnar cloud model and AgI seeding scheme. The cloud model is driven in real time using multiple sets of thermal and microphysical profiles provided by the mesoscale model, which comprise the environmental field disturbance error. The multimember, single grid/multigrid AgI seeding numerical experiments are conducted to simulate the precipitation process of convective-stratiform mixed clouds in Zhejiang Province on January 23, 2022, to establish the optimal seeding scheme and the probability distribution of the seeding effect. Results revealed that, from the simulation effect of a single station (Hangzhou station), all members of ensemble forecast can realize positive precipitation enhancement when the amounts of AgI used at a height of 3.6 km (−5.2°C) are 1.2×10−7 to 1.2×10−4 g kg−1 at 1500 UTC on January 23, in which the precipitation enhancement is the largest at an amount of AgI of 1.2×10−5g kg−1, with a mean value of 4.67% and the 99% quantile of 7.77%. In the single point simulation, the initial field disturbance has a great effect on concluding whether excessive seeding leads to precipitation reduction, e.g., when the amount of AgI is increased to 1.2×10−2 g kg−1, more than 50% of the ensemble members exhibit the effect of precipitation reduction, but some members still display the effect of enhancement. Multiple grid sensitive experiments indicate that it should be seeded in the northwest and north of Zhejiang, particularly in the northeast of Jiaxing and near the Lin’an area from the perspective of the optimal probability of the seeding effect. Moreover, these regions correspond to relatively high average supercooled water content and low average ice crystal number concentration.

     

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