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徐群, 赵亮. 2022. 近136年(1885~2020年)长江中下游伏旱期划分及其演变分析[J]. 大气科学, 48(X): 1−23. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2212.22100
引用本文: 徐群, 赵亮. 2022. 近136年(1885~2020年)长江中下游伏旱期划分及其演变分析[J]. 大气科学, 48(X): 1−23. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2212.22100
Xu Qun, Zhao Liang. 2022. The Division and Evolution for Hot–Dry Periods in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in the Past 136 Years (1885–2020) [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(X): 1−23. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2212.22100
Citation: Xu Qun, Zhao Liang. 2022. The Division and Evolution for Hot–Dry Periods in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in the Past 136 Years (1885–2020) [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(X): 1−23. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2212.22100

近136年(1885~2020年)长江中下游伏旱期划分及其演变分析

The Division and Evolution for Hot–Dry Periods in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in the Past 136 Years (1885–2020)

  • 摘要: 少雨高温的伏旱期对长江中下游地区农业、水利和人体健康等具有重要影响,但目前缺乏对该地区伏旱期的历史划分,对其长期变化规律也缺乏充分认识。本文利用1885年以来已划定的长江中下游沿江五站(上海、南京、芜湖、九江和汉口)梅雨期和夏季日气温、降水资料,对出梅后的少雨高温时段分别确定了少雨和高温的定量标准,划定出1885~2020年长江中下游伏旱期,并用统一气温标准结合伏旱期长度,综合确定了近136 a(1885~2020年)伏旱期强度指数。这136 a(包含有16个无伏旱年及10个入秋伏旱年)里伏旱期的年平均长度为21.6 d,呈现出3~6 a、36 a和84 a周期。1951年以来,1959~1978年是伏旱期长度的主要峰期,1980~1987年是伏旱期长度的下降谷期,之后缓慢增加;1980年代之后虽然大于30 d的长伏旱期有减少趋势,但是15~30 d且高强度的伏旱期频现;1995年之后秋伏旱明显增多,夏季延迟。136 a里最长且强的伏旱期依次出现于1934、1967、1978和2013年;最早的伏旱期出现在6月中旬,最晚在9月中下旬。近40 a来,伏旱期高温(≥35.0°C)日数大幅提高,伏旱期高温发生率从1980年代的30%左右上升到近年的50%以上,对人体健康构成威胁。长(强)伏旱期的副热带环流特征为西太平洋副热带高压稳定控制长江中下游区,而短(弱)伏旱期西太平洋副热带高压多偏东或偏南,入秋伏旱与副热带高压稳定西伸有关。伏旱期内高温日数的演变受到双重人类活动的制约,它不仅与人类活动导致的全球海陆升温有关,并且因地而异,即受到局地生态环境演变和城市热岛效应增减的人为作用影响。印度—太平洋季风区陆海温差对长江中下游伏旱期长度年代际变化有重要调制作用。

     

    Abstract: Hot–dry periods with low rain and high temperatures along MLRYR (the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River) have significant effects on agriculture, water conservation, and human health. However, there is still a lack of sufficient understanding of the historical divisions and long-term change patterns of the hot–dry period in the region. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of the Meiyu and summer seasons from five stations (Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhu, Jiujiang, and Hankou) along the MLRYR since 1885, the quantitative standards of low rain and high temperature for the hot–dry period after the Meiyu season were determined, and the MLRYR hot–dry periods from 1885 to 2020 were defined. By combining the uniform temperature standard and the length of the summer hot–dry period, the intensity index of the summer hot–dry period for 136 years was determined. For the 136 years, the annual hot–dry period had an average length of 21.6 d (including 16 non-hot–dry-period years and 10 autumn hot–dry years), exhibiting cycles of 3–6 years, 36 years, and 84 years. Since 1951, 1959–1978 has been the main peak period with long annual hot–dry periods, while 1980–1987 has been the valley period, and then the number of hot–dry days slowly increased. After the 1980s, even though long hot–dry periods more than 30 days tended to decrease, high-intensity hot–dry periods of 15–30 days frequently occurred. Since 1995, the number of the autumn hot–dry days has increased significantly, and summer has shown a trend of delay. The years 1934, 1967, 1978, and 2013 showed the longest and strongest summer hot–dry periods in 136 years, and the earliest/latest hot–dry period was observed in the middle of June/middle and late September. In the past 40 years, the number of high-temperature days (≥35.0°C) in the summer hot–dry periods has increased significantly, and the incidence of high temperature in the summer hot–dry periods has increased from approximately 30% in the 1980s to more than 50% in recent years, posing a threat to human health. The characteristics of subtropical circulation in the long (strong) summer hot–dry periods are that the western Pacific subtropical high stably controls the MLRYR, while in the short (weak) summer hot–dry periods, the western Pacific subtropical high is mostly located in the east or south, and the autumn hot–dry periods are associated with the stable westward extension of the subtropical high. The increase of high-temperature days in the summer hot–dry periods is restricted by two human activities: (1) Global sea and land warming; (2) the evolution of the local ecological environment and change in urban heat island effects. On the interdecadal timescale, the continent–ocean temperature difference in the Indo-Pacific monsoon region has a significant modulation effect on the interdecadal variation in the length of the summer hot–dry periods along the MLRYR.

     

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