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王婷, 祝从文, 马双梅. 2024. 东亚夏季风和中国雨季的趋势变化对关键区气温和海温的影响[J]. 大气科学, 48(3): 1−16. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2304.22188
引用本文: 王婷, 祝从文, 马双梅. 2024. 东亚夏季风和中国雨季的趋势变化对关键区气温和海温的影响[J]. 大气科学, 48(3): 1−16. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2304.22188
WANG Ting, ZHU Congwen, MA Shuangmei. 2024. Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Rainy Season in China and Their Possible Impact Factors Considering Global Warming [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(3): 1−16. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2304.22188
Citation: WANG Ting, ZHU Congwen, MA Shuangmei. 2024. Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Rainy Season in China and Their Possible Impact Factors Considering Global Warming [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(3): 1−16. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2304.22188

东亚夏季风和中国雨季的趋势变化对关键区气温和海温的影响

Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Rainy Season in China and Their Possible Impact Factors Considering Global Warming

  • 摘要: 中国降水主要受到西风和季风环流的共同影响,表现出显著的年循环特征。本文基于1961~2020年CN05.1逐日降水资料和JRA55、CRU、HadISST再分析资料,采用谐波分析、相关和回归统计方法,分析了过去60年的东亚夏季风(中国雨季)的建立(开始)、撤退(结束)和持续时间等年循环参数趋势的变化特征。结果显示,自1961年以来,东亚夏季风有建立时间提前,撤退时间推后,持续时间增长的趋势,每十年分别达到了3.54、1.64、5.18天。1999年前后22年我国雨季也存在趋势变化,且在空间上存在显著差异。最近22年(1999~2020年),我国雨季提前主要集中在东北东部、青藏高原东部、西北北部地区,提前时间达5天以上,部分地区超过了20天。雨季滞后主要集中在青藏高原东北,长江以北和西部地区,时间超过了10天。雨季持续时间增加主要集中在青藏高原东北部、我国长江以北、东北东南部地区,时间超过15天以上,部分地区超过25天。研究发现,4月份环贝加尔湖地表气温增加及其伴随的局地反气旋性环流异常,是东亚夏季风建立和我国雨季开始时间提前的关键,而10月份的西北太平洋海温增暖及其伴随的西北太平洋副热带反气旋的异常是导致东亚夏季风撤退和中国北方雨季变长的关键。

     

    Abstract: Precipitation patterns in China are shaped by a combination of westerly wind and monsoon circulation, with both exhibiting significant annual cycle characteristics. Herein, we analyzed the trends of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) onset, withdrawal, duration, and rainy season in China from 1961 to 2020. We used daily precipitation data from CN05.1 and JRA55, CRU, and HadISST reanalyzed datasets. Our findings indicate a shift in the EASM timing. The onset has advanced by 3.54 days, and the withdrawal has been delayed by 1.64 days. Consequently, the monsoon duration has increased by 5.18 days per decade since 1961. The rainy season in China has also experienced changes, particularly after 1999, with noticeable spatial differences. Recently (1999−2020), the onset of the rainy season has advanced mainly in the eastern part of Northeast China and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, as well as the north of Northwest China. In these areas, the onset of rain was approximately 5 days earlier, exceeding 20 days in some areas. Conversely, the withdrawal of the rainy season has been delayed by over 10 days in the northeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the north of the Yangtze River, and the western China. These shifts in onset and withdrawal have resulted in a substantial increase in the rainy season’s duration in the northeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the north of the Yangtze River, and the southeastern part of Northeast China. Here, the rainy period has extended by over 15 days and even surpassed 25 days in some areas. We identified several key factors driving these changes. The warming surface air temperature around Lake Baikal and enhanced upper-level anticyclone in April are pivotal for the onset advance of the EASM and rainy season in China. Similarly, the warming of the northwest Pacific sea surface temperature in October and enhanced subtropical anticyclones in the northwest Pacific are crucial factors leading to the delayed withdrawal of the EASM and a longer rainy season in northern China.

     

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