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水汽影响南疆干旱区极端降水的数值试验研究

Advanced Numerical Methods to Examine the Impact of Moisture on Extreme Precipitation in the Arid Zone of South Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 本文采用WRF模式对发生在南疆复杂地形条件下的一次极端暴雨过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟,采用水汽敏感性试验,研究了水汽对南疆干旱区极端暴雨的影响,初步揭示了水汽影响南疆暴雨的动热力机理。进一步研究了广义湿位涡和对流涡度矢量对干旱区暴雨的表征能力。结论如下:水汽变化显著影响降水的极端性(降水强度)。当水汽增强时,降水强度的变化要明显高于水汽本身的变化强度,降水的极端性明显增强,特别是当低层水汽增强时,对降水的极端性增强影响最为显著。这是由于:改变水汽后,降水大气的对流有效位能(CAPE)变化显著,CAPE越强,对流触发后能够获得更强的发展,产生的垂直运动更强,从而能够进一步抽吸低层水汽,形成正反馈机制,导致极端降水发生。敏感性试验显示:水汽增加时,上升运动明显增强,低层东风急流强度明显增强,加强降水区水汽辐合,导致输送到中层的水汽增加,中层凝结潜热释放增多,进一步增强上升运动,降水强度增强;水汽减小时上升运动明显减弱,低层东风急流强度明显减弱,降水区水汽辐合减弱,这导致输送到中层的水汽减少,中层凝结潜热释放减少,进一步上升运动减小,降水强度减弱。广义湿位涡和对流涡度矢量的空间分布和时间演变与模拟降水有着良好对应,特别是水汽改变后,相应地,广义湿位涡和对流涡度矢量出现相似的变化特征,表明包含丰富动热力信息的物理因子能够抓住干旱区极端降水的典型特征,未来可能将其应用于干旱区降水的预警预报中。

     

    Abstract: The paper presents a high-resolution numerical simulation of an extreme rainstorm event occurring under the complex topographic conditions in South Xinjiang, utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting model. It also carries out water vapor sensitivity experiments to investigate the impact of water vapor on extreme rainstorms in this arid zone. These experiments unveil the initial understanding of how water vapor dynamically and thermally affects rainstorms in South Xinjiang. Further investigation into the characterization ability of the generalized wet vortex and convective vorticity vector reveals their impact on heavy rainfall in arid zones. The study concludes that changes in water vapor significantly influence the intensity of extreme precipitation. Specifically, an increase in water vapor results in a significantly higher change in precipitation intensity than the change in water vapor itself. This effect is most pronounced when low-level water vapor is enhanced. When mid-level water vapor increases, the extremity of precipitation also notably intensifies. Furthermore, the study finds that the change in precipitation intensity is linear within the first hour of changing water vapor. This is attributed to the fact that varying water vapor significantly affects the convective available potential energy (CAPE) in the precipitation atmosphere. The stronger the CAPE, the more powerful the convective trigger becomes, leading to stronger vertical motion that can further pump lower-level water vapor. This positive feedback mechanism results in extreme precipitation. Sensitivity experiments reveal that increasing water vapor significantly enhances upward motion, intensifies the low-level easterly rush, and strengthens water vapor convergence in the precipitation zone. This leads to an increase in water vapor transportation to the mesosphere and an increase in the release of latent heat of condensation, further amplifying upward motion and increasing precipitation intensity. Conversely, decreasing water vapor results in a significant reduction in upward motion, the strength of the low-level easterly rush, and the water vapor convergence in the precipitation zone. As a result, the water vapor transported to the middle layer decreases, leading to a reduction in the release of latent heat of condensation, resulting in a decrease in upward motion and precipitation intensity. The simulated precipitation strongly correlates with the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of both the generalized wet vortex and convective vorticity vectors. This correlation is particularly evident following changes in water vapor, as the features of both vectors display similar changes. These results suggest that the rich dynamic and thermal information contained within these physical factors can effectively capture the key features of extreme precipitation in arid regions. Moreover, by integrating these physical factors with precipitation data, they could potentially prove useful for early warning and prediction of rainfall, particularly in arid areas. Therefore, coupling these physical factors with precipitation data could greatly improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasting in arid zones.

     

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