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杨占梅, 张井勇, 杜振彩. 2024. 春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中的关键作用[J]. 大气科学, 48(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2306.22125
引用本文: 杨占梅, 张井勇, 杜振彩. 2024. 春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中的关键作用[J]. 大气科学, 48(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2306.22125
YANG Zhanmei, ZHANG Jingyong, DU Zhencai. 2024. Critical Role of Spring Soil Temperature in Predicting Interannual Variability of Midsummer Precipitation over Northeastern China [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2306.22125
Citation: YANG Zhanmei, ZHANG Jingyong, DU Zhencai. 2024. Critical Role of Spring Soil Temperature in Predicting Interannual Variability of Midsummer Precipitation over Northeastern China [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2306.22125

春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中的关键作用

Critical Role of Spring Soil Temperature in Predicting Interannual Variability of Midsummer Precipitation over Northeastern China

  • 摘要: 全球变暖背景下,中国东北夏季洪涝干旱灾害发生频繁,对人类和自然系统造成严重影响。但是,目前东北夏季降水预测水平较低,远不能满足防灾、减灾的需求。中国东北汛期降水主要集中在盛夏(7~8月),其年际变率与年代际变率相当。本文聚焦在分析春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中的作用。研究发现中国东北盛夏降水年际分量与欧洲中东部春季土壤温度年际分量存在显著负相关关系、与青藏高原东部和西亚东北部春季土壤温度年际分量存在显著正相关关系。春季关键区土壤温度异常对应下游地区盛夏土壤温度异常,从而引起东亚盛夏大气环流异常,高空西风急流偏强偏北、西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏北,进而造成中国东北水汽辐合与上升增强,引起中国东北盛夏降水增强。进一步采用欧洲中东部、青藏高原东部和西亚东北部春季土壤温度年际分量建立了中国东北盛夏降水年际分量的季节预测模型,1979~2021年留一法交叉检验时间相关系数在GLDAS-Noah、ERA5 和CRA三套数据中最高可达0.64,2012~2021年的后报试验时间相关系数在三套数据中最高可达0.78,表明春季土壤温度在中国东北盛夏降水年际分量预测中起到关键作用。研究成果能够为提高中国东北夏季降水预测提供科学基础,并易于应用到实际预测。

     

    Abstract: Under the influence of global warming, floods and droughts often occur in summer over northeastern China, resulting in serious consequences to human and natural systems. However, the current seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over northeastern China is still low and far from satisfying the needs of disaster prevention and reduction. The precipitation during the rainy season in northeastern China is primarily concentrated in midsummer (July and August), and its interannual variability is comparable to that of interdecadal variability. The focus of this study is on examining the predictive role of the interannual variability of soil temperature in the interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China. The results revealed a substantial negative correlation between the interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China, the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over central and Eastern Europe, and a significant positive correlation with the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over eastern Qinghai Tibet Plateau and northeastern West Asia. The abnormal soil temperature in the key areas in spring relates to the abnormal soil temperature in the downstream region during the midsummer, thereby causing abnormal atmospheric circulation in East Asia during the midsummer. Furthermore, the upper-level westerly jet is strong and northward, and the western Pacific subtropical high is northward, leading to elevated water vapor convergence and upward movement over northeastern China, giving rise to increased precipitation in the midsummer. A seasonal prediction model for the interannual variability of spring soil temperature over central and Eastern Europe, eastern Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and northeastern West Asia was constructed to predict the interannual variability of summer precipitation over northeastern China. Moreover, the Time correlation coefficient(TCC)TCC of the leave-one-out cross-validation could reach a maximum of 0.64, and hindcast during 2012–2021 could reach a maximum of 0.78 in the GLDAS-Noah, ERA5, and CRA datasets, demonstrating that spring soil temperature plays a crucial role in predicting the interannual component of midsummer precipitation over northeastern China. This study offers a scientific basis for enhancing the prediction of summer precipitation over northeastern China to be easily applied to actual predictions.

     

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