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基于再分析格点资料的西南低涡客观识别新方法及效果评估

A New Objective Identification Method of the Southwest Vortex Based on Reanalysis Grid Data and Its Effect Evaluation

  • 摘要: 西南低涡致灾性强,影响广泛,对其降雨机制和气候特征的揭示意义重大。基于格点数据的客观识别算法是西南低涡研究领域重要的基础内容之一。高空间分辨率格点数据导致的局地扰动以及地形对西南低涡环流完整性的影响是现有西南低涡算法识别准确率不高的主要原因。本文提出了一种主要基于700 hPa风场的西南低涡客观识别新方法,该方法可在不对识别数据进行平滑等前处理的情况下克服局地扰动和地形遮挡等不利影响,显著提升涡心识别准确率。经过改进的路径追踪算法可识别新生低涡,避免新老涡心的错误连接从而获得更为客观的低涡路径识别结果。评估结果表明,新方法在西南低涡活动全域的平均识别命中率、漏识率和空识率分别为85.71%、14.29%和11.7%。在受地形影响较小的104°E以东地区识别命中率更是超过90%,漏识率和空识率均低于10%。较好的识别效果和较高的计算效率使得新方法更能满足科研和业务的需求。

     

    Abstract: The SWV (southwest vortex) is known for its strong ability to cause disasters and extensive influence, making it crucial to understand its rainfall mechanisms and climate characteristics. The objective identification algorithm based on grid data is one of the important basic contents in SWV research. The local disturbance caused by high spatial resolution grid data and the influence of topography on the integrity of SWV circulation are the main reasons for the low identification accuracy of existing algorithms. In this paper, a new objective identification method for SWV based on a 700-hPa wind field is proposed. This method can overcome the adverse effects of local disturbances and terrain occlusion without pre-processing (e.g., smoothing) of identification data and significantly improve the accuracy of identifying SWV centers. The improved tracking algorithm can recognize new SWVs and prevent wrong connections between old and new SWV centers, resulting in increased objective SWV tracking. Evaluation results show that the average identification hit rate, missing report rate, and false alarm rate of the new method are 85.71%, 14.29%, and 11.7%, respectively. In the area east of 104°E, where terrain effects are not intense, the identification hit rate is more than 90%, with the missing report and false alarm rates being lower than 10%. This improved recognition accuracy and higher computational efficiency make the new method highly suitable for scientific research and professional applications.

     

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