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青海高原生长归一化差值植被指数对气候暖湿化响应的年代际变化

Interdecadal Variation of Normalized Differential Vegetation Index Response to Climate Warming and Humidification in the Qinghai Plateau during the Growing Season

  • 摘要: 本文利用1982~2018年美国国家海洋和大气局(NOAA)先进甚高分辨率辐射计(AVHRR)观测得到的归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)数据集和中国区域高分辨率近地面气温和地面降水率驱动数据集(CMFD),采用线性倾向估计、M–K检验、偏相关和方差分析等方法,研究了气候暖湿化背景下青海高原生长季(5~9月)地表植被变化特征及其对气候暖湿化响应的年代际变化。结果表明:(1)1982~2018年,青海高原生长季地表植被呈由东南向西北逐渐减小的空间分布特征,整体呈显著增加趋势(p<0.01),气候倾向率达0.01 (10 a)−1,但在空间上呈两极化发展,在青海高原东部和西南部植被显著变好(面积占57.3%)的同时,青海高原西北部的柴达木盆地地表植被表现为退化态势(面积占14.8%)。(2)1982~2018年青海高原气候整体呈暖湿化特征,但在1990年代中后期发生了显著的趋势变化,不同时段气候暖湿化的区域和强度存在差异,P1时段(1982~1998年)的增温强于P2(1998~2018年)时段,而P2时段的变湿强于P1时段;青海高原生长季地表植被在 1998年之前为波动上升,趋势不显著,但从1998年开始出现显著增加趋势(p<0.05),这与青海高原地面降水率的变化相一致。(3)在青海高原气候暖湿化不同阶段,地表植被对气候变化具有不同的响应,在P1时段,水分条件相对不足的情况下,地表植被对热量因子(气温)以负反馈为主,增温不利于地表植被的生长,特别是在黄河源区北部和青海湖附近;而在P2时段,在水分条件相对充足的条件下,地表植被对水分和热量因子均以正反馈为主,在二者的共同作用下,青海高原生长季地表植被出现了大范围好转。

     

    Abstract: Herein, the variation characteristics of the growing season (May–September) vegetation on the Qinghai Plateau and their responses to climate change are studied based on the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) dataset obtained from the Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the high-resolution near-surface air temperature and surface precipitation rate of the China meteorological forcing dataset from 1982 to 2018. Statistical methods used in this study include linear tendency estimation, Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, partial correlation, and analysis of variance. The results show the following: (1) during the growing season of the Qinghai Plateau from 1982 to 2018, the vegetation exhibits a spatial distribution feature that gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and there is a considerable increasing trend overall with a climate tendency rate of 0.01 (10 a)−1. However, the trend of vegetation has a bipolar development feature in space; conversely, while the vegetation in the eastern and southwestern parts of the plateau considerably improves (57.3% of the total area), the vegetation of the Qaidam Basin in the northwestern part of the plateau exhibits a deterioration trend (14.8% of the total area); (2) during 1982–2018, the climate of the Qinghai Plateau is characterized by warming and humidification as a whole, but its trend considerably changed around 1998, and there are differences in the regions and intensities of climate warming and humidification in different periods. The warming in period P1 (1982–1998) was stronger than that in period P2 (1998–2018), and the humidification in period P2 was stronger than that in period P1. The trend of NDVI in the growing season of the plateau fluctuates with no obvious trend before 1998, but it exhibits a considerably increasing trend after 1998, which is consistent with the trend of surface precipitation rate in the plateau’s vegetation; (3) there is an interdecadal variation in the response of surface vegetation on the Qinghai Plateau to climate warming and humidification. In period P1, when the water is relatively insufficient, the surface vegetation has a negative feedback on the thermal factor (air temperature), and warming is not conducive to the growth of surface vegetation, particularly in the northern part of the source area of the Yellow River and near the Qinghai Lake. However, in period P2, under the conditions of relatively sufficient water, the surface vegetation mainly has a positive feedback on both the water and heat factors, crucially contributing to the extensive improvement of surface vegetation on the plateau in the growing season.

     

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