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蔡榕硕, 谭红建. 2024. 中国近海变暖和海洋热浪演变特征及气候成因研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 48(1): 121−146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2308.23313
引用本文: 蔡榕硕, 谭红建. 2024. 中国近海变暖和海洋热浪演变特征及气候成因研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 48(1): 121−146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2308.23313
CAI Rongshuo, TAN Hongjian. 2024. Progress on the Evolutionary Characteristics and Climatic Causes for Warming and Marine Heatwaves in the Coastal China Seas [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(1): 121−146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2308.23313
Citation: CAI Rongshuo, TAN Hongjian. 2024. Progress on the Evolutionary Characteristics and Climatic Causes for Warming and Marine Heatwaves in the Coastal China Seas [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(1): 121−146. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2308.23313

中国近海变暖和海洋热浪演变特征及气候成因研究进展

Progress on the Evolutionary Characteristics and Climatic Causes for Warming and Marine Heatwaves in the Coastal China Seas

  • 摘要: 近几十年来,气候变化背景下中国近海海表面温度(SST)显著上升且极端高海温事件(海洋热浪)频发,时常造成海洋生物大规模死亡和赤潮暴发等生态灾害。为此,文章回顾分析了中国近海变暖及海洋热浪的相关研究进展,包括海温变化趋势和变率、海洋热浪演变特征和气候成因,以及相关影响,并探讨了应对策略。研究显示,1960~2022年,中国近海尤其是东中国海(渤海、黄海和东海)变暖趋势显著,SST分别上升了1.02°C±0.19°C、1.45°C±0.32°C,主要受到东亚季风减弱和黑潮入侵增强的影响;而SST年际和年代际变率还与厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)和太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)等大尺度气候因子有关。中国近海变暖还引起地理等温线明显向北迁移,造成季节性物候发生变迁(春季提前和秋季滞后),并影响海洋生物生长节律、地理分布、群落结构和生态服务功能。自1982年以来,中国近海海洋热浪增多变强,最近十年(2010~2019年)尤其显著,其中,东中国海和南海(5~9月)海洋热浪平均发生频率分别是1980年代的20倍和4倍,并与热带印度洋偶极子和厄尔尼诺有较高的相关关系。趋频增强的海洋热浪对珊瑚礁等海洋生态系统和海水养殖业造成了灾难性的影响。研究还揭示,未来中国近海较高纬度海区将暴露于更强烈的升温、热浪、酸化、缺氧和生产力降低等综合影响下,海洋生态系统特别是南海珊瑚礁等生态系统面临突破气候临界点的风险。当前除应加强对中国近海变暖和海洋热浪物理过程、可预报性及预测预警等研究外,还亟需采取变革性和前瞻性的海洋气候行动与应对措施,增强海洋生态系统的气候恢复力,应对未来气候变化的影响。

     

    Abstract: Over the past decades, the coastal China seas (CCSs) have experienced strong warming and frequent extremely high sea temperature events (marine heatwaves, MHWs), resulting in a series of ecological disasters, including mass mortality of marine organisms and outbreaks of harmful algal bloom. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the research progress involving the warming and MHWs in CCSs, including the characteristics and causes for long-term warming trends and MHWs, as well as their ecological impacts and adaptation strategies. The sea surface temperature (SST) in CCSs, especially in the East China seas (Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas, hereafter ECSs), has demonstrated an enhanced response to global warming under the combined influences of the East Asian monsoon and Kuroshio, with an annual mean increase of 1.02°C±0.19°C and 1.45°C±0.32°C during 1960–2022, respectively. The interannual and interdecadal variability of SST in CCSs is also teleconnected to large-scale climate modes, such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Ocean warming has led to rapid northward migration of geographic isotherms and seasonal phenological changes (i.e., spring arrives earlier and fall ends later than normal), resulting in changes in the growth rhythm, geographic distribution, community structure, and ecological service functions of marine organisms. Since 1982, the frequency, intensity, and duration of MHWs in CCSs have increased obviously and are expected to increase further in the future. The frequency of MHWs in ECSs and the South China Sea is 20 and 4 times higher than that in the 1980s, respectively, and these frequencies are highly correlated with the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. Frequent extreme MHWs have resulted in devastating disasters in marine ecosystems, such as mass coral bleaching and mortality. In the future, CCSs, especially the mid-high latitudes of CCSs, will be simultaneously exposed to increased warming, deoxygenation, acidification, and reduced productivity. Marine ecosystems, especially warm-water coral reefs in the South China Sea, are at risk of mass breaching climate tipping points. Therefore, in-depth research on the physical processes and predictability of MHWs, as well as the development of forecasting and early warning systems, are urgently needed. Additionally, transformative climate action measures should be developed to enhance the climate resilience of marine ecosystems, and strong mitigation measures need to be established immediately to slow down global warming.

     

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