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GRIST模式全球0.125度基线配置的中期降水预报性能分析

Performance Analysis of Medium-Range Precipitation Forecast by the Baseline Version of GRIST Global 0.125-Degree Weather Model Configuration

  • 摘要: 利用国内自主研发的全球—区域一体化预测系统(GRIST)0.125度天气预报模式配置开展了中期天气预报试验,通过与ERA5再分析数据、卫星观测数据(Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM)和成熟的业务全球数值天气预报模式结果进行比较评估了该系统基线配置下的降水预报性能,并探索了模式对不同动力配置的敏感性。结果表明,冷启动下的GRIST模式能较好地模拟全球500 hPa环流场,其对500 hPa位势高度异常相关系数(ACC500)的预报性能和美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的全球预报系统(GFS)较为接近。降水方面,GRIST能够再现和观测一致的全球平均降水的空间分布。随着积分时间增加,模式在赤道辐合带和青藏高原南坡附近相比于NCEP-GFS出现了稍高的系统性降水湿偏差。基于降水强度和频次的分析表明,这种湿偏差很可能源于GRIST模式对这些区域降水频次的高估。针对全球6个降水关键区,考察了模式的强度—频次谱结构和日变化特征。GRIST对“较强降水”强度—频次结构的模拟能力优于NCEP-GFS,且对降水日循环的总体模拟较好,但部分地区存在对降水峰值的略微高估和提前。GRIST静力和非静力动力内核在0.125度分辨率的降水预报统计特征具有较高一致性。垂直60层较30层在环流和降水的模拟上均有一定增益效果。

     

    Abstract: Medium-range forecasting experiments were conducted using the 0.125-degree weather forecast model configuration of the domestically developed Global-Regional Integrated Forecast System (GRIST). The precipitation forecast performance of GRIST’s baseline version was evaluated by comparison with the ERA5 reanalysis data, satellite observation data (GPM) and two global numerical weather prediction models. In addition, the sensitivity of GRIST to different dynamic configurations was explored. The results show that GRIST when initiated from a cold start, can simulate global 500-hPa circulation patterns. Its performance in terms of the 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC500) is comparable to that of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Regarding precipitation simulation, GRIST successfully captures the spatial distribution of global mean precipitation, aligning overall with observations. However, as integration time increases, GRIST tends to exhibit larger systematic precipitation wet biases in precipitation than NCEP-GFS, particularly over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the south slope of the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau. An analysis of precipitation intensity and frequency suggests that these wet biases stem from an overestimation of precipitation frequency. To further explore this, six key regions were selected to investigate the forecasted precipitation intensity–frequency spectrum and its diurnal variation. In these analyses, GRIST more accurately simulated the intensity and frequency structure of “heavy precipitation” compared to NCEP-GFS. The simulation performance of diurnal variation of precipitation is generally reasonable, but an overestimation and advance of precipitation peak was found in several areas. Both the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic dynamical cores of GRIST are highly consistent in the 0.125-degree resolution weather predictions. Experiments using 60 layers, as opposed to 30 layers, provided added value om simulating circulation and precipitation patterns.

     

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