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基于生成对抗网络的强对流临近预报方法及其在中国东部地区的应用评估

Severe Convection Nowcasting Method Based on a Generative Adversarial Network and Its Application Evaluation in Eastern China

  • 摘要: 为了缓解深度学习雷达回波外推预报中普遍存在的模糊问题,发展了一种有机融合PhyDNet方法和频域匹配生成对抗网络的雷达回波外推预报方法(PhyDNetSGAN),能够预测江苏及其上游地区未来3 h的雷达组合反射率因子,通过对比PhyDNetSGAN、PhyDNet(未使用生成对抗网络)、PhyDNetGAN和Sprog(改进的光流法)验证了新方法在强对流天气临近预报中的适用性。结果表明:(1)与光流法Sprog相比,深度学习方法能更好地体现强回波的非线性发展演变过程。(2)增加生成对抗网络的PhyDNetGAN和PhyDNetSGAN较其他两组试验能够得到更精细且符合预报员主观认知的雷达回波外推结果,缓解模糊问题。(3)新提出的PhyDNetSGAN不仅能够改善预报精细度,还能更好地捕获强回波的形态、位置和中心强度,从而获得更优的预报技巧,延长有效预报时长。(4)新提出的综合TS评分、Bias评分和FID评分的综合评分指标较TS评分能够更好地反应与预报员主观体验相一致的临近预报检验效果。

     

    Abstract: To alleviate the common fuzzy problem in deep learning-based on radar echo extrapolation prediction, a new radar echo extrapolation prediction method (PhyDNetSGAN) was developed. This method organically fuses PhyDNet method and a frequency-domain matching generative adversarial network to predict the combined radar reflectivity factor for Jiangsu and its upstream region in the next 3 h. The effectiveness of PhyDNetSGAN was verified by comparing it with PhyDNet (without a generative adversarial network), PhyDNetGAN, and Sprog (an improved optical flow method) for predicting severe convection weather. The results demonstrate the following points: (1) Deep learning methods outperform Sprong method in capturing the nonlinear evolution of strong echoes. (2) PhyDNetGAN and PhyDNetSGAN, which include a generative adversarial network, produce more refined radar echo extrapolation results in line with the subjective cognition of forecasters than the other two groups of experiments and alleviate the “fuzzy” problem. (3) The newly developed PhyDNetSGAN not only improves forecast precision but also better captures the form, position, and central intensity of strong echoes, thereby improving prediction skills and effective forecast times. (4) A newly proposed comprehensive score index, combining TS (Threat Score), Bias, and FID (Fréchet Inception Distance), can better reflect the test effect of an approaching forecast, which is consistent with the subjective cognition of forecasters.

     

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