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利用地面格点Nudging改进华南前汛期暖区强降水的数值预报

Using Surface-Grid Nudging to Improve Numerical Prediction of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall Over South China During Pre-summer Rainy Season

  • 摘要: 数值模式对华南前汛期暖区强降水的再现能力存在显著的不确定性。2020年5月29日在广东省沿海发生了一次暖区强降水事件,所有数值预报几乎都漏报了此次降水。本研究采用地面格点Nudging技术设计了8组试验,探讨了格点Nudging地面观测资料对数值模拟结果的影响。结果表明,Nudging地面全气象要素(控制试验,EXP1)能够较好地再现广东省沿海岸线线状对流的发生发展时空演变及其强降水。Nudging不同地面要素的敏感性试验表明,Nudging地面水汽直接决定了对流的触发,主要是由于Nudging地面水汽在3小时之内迅速将对流层低层相对湿度从80%增加到趋近于饱和(99%),同时显著降低了对流抑制能、抬升凝结高度和自由对流高度;Nudging地面温度增大了位温扰动,增加了热浮力,一定程度上有助于对流的触发和组织,未Nudging地面温度时对流的发生发展明显滞后,且对流系统组织较松散;Nudging地面风场有助于修正近地层西南风风向,使对流演变和降水量更接近观测。最后开展了6组试验探讨了Nudging时长对模拟结果的影响,结果显示Nudging地面全气象要素6小时的模拟效果与控制试验几乎一致,可较好地再现此次暖区强降水过程。尽管水汽在前3小时之内迅速增加,但一定时间(3小时)的水汽维持有助于对流的快速发展。因此,在模式积分前期(6小时),采用格点Nudging地面加密观测资料一定程度上可改善华南暖区强降水的数值预报性能。

     

    Abstract: Significant uncertainties exist in the ability of numerical models to accurately predict heavy rainfall events during the pre-summer rainy season in southern China’ warm sector. A notable instance occurred on May 29–30, 2020, when heavy rain struck Guangdong Province’s coastline, but all operational numerical models at the time failed to predict it. Consequently, eight experiments were conducted to assess the influence of incorporating surface-intensive observations into simulations through a technique known as nudging. The study found that the control experiment (EXP1), which nudged all surface meteorological elements, successfully replicated the development of linear convection and the spatial and temporal evolution of heavy precipitation along the Guangdong coastline. Sensitivity experiments highlighted that nudging surface water vapor was crucial for convection initiation. This was primarily attributed to a swift increase in relative humidity from 80% to near saturation (99%) within 3 hours at low levels, accompanied by a marked reduction in convective inhibition (CIN), lifting condensation level (LCL), and level of free convection (LFC). Nudging surface temperature enhanced thermal buoyancy by amplifying potential temperature perturbations, thereby influencing convection initiation and organization. Without nudging the surface temperature, convection occurred later and was less organized. Nudging surface wind helps correct the near-surface southwesterly wind direction, bringing convection evolution and rainfall into better alignment with observations. Six additional experiments examined the effect of the nudging duration on simulations. The results suggest that nudging all surface meteorological elements for 6 hours produced results similar to the control run, effectively modeling heavy rainfall along the coastline. Although water vapor surged rapidly within the first 3 hours, maintaining it for another 3 hours facilitated rapid convection development. Thus, incorporating surface-intensive observations through nudging during the initial 6 hours of model integration can enhance the numerical prediction of southern China’s warm sector.

     

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