Abstract:
Based on the HadISST and ERSSTv5 sea surface temperature (SST) data, EN4 subsurface ocean temperature data, CMAP precipitation, and ERA5 reanalysis data, this paper presents the interdecadal shift of the interannual relationship between spring SST in the North Pacific and autumn precipitation in the Maritime Continent. (1) Victoria mode (VM) is the second mode of EOF analysis of spring SST in the North Pacific, which has a significant negative correlation with autumn precipitation in the Maritime Continent. (2) When VM is in a positive (negative) phase in spring, it is usually accompanied by the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific meridional mode and the cold (warm) SST anomaly in the Western North Pacific. The SST gradient would result in the westerly (easterly) anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, affecting the eastward propagation of the equatorial Kelvin wave and leading to warm (cold) SST anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific. The SST gradient and westerly (easterly) anomaly persist into autumn through Bjerknes feedback; thus, the mature El Niño (La Niña) event forms in autumn. Afterward, via the Walker circulation, the abnormal sinking (rising) movement and low-level divergence and high-level convergence (low-level convergence and high-level divergence) over the Maritime Continent take place, causing a precipitation decrease (increase). (3) This interannual relationship between the variation of springtime VM and the autumn precipitation over the Maritime Continent changed in 2003, which was a significant negative correlation for the period 1979–2002 but was insignificant in 2004–2020. This interdecadal shift is because the magnitude and position of the North Pacific Oscillation changed in 2004–2020, leading to the weakening of the influence of the North Pacific Oscillation on the southern SST key area of VM, thus weakening the amplitude, weakening the meridional gradient of the key area of SST between the southern and northern part of VM, weakening the VM amplitude, and finally reducing the correlation coefficient.