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不同积云对流方案对长江中下游流域降水和气温模拟的性能评价

Performance Evaluation of Different Cumulus Convection Schemes for Simulating Precipitation and Air Temperature in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

  • 摘要: 以往开展的基于长江流域WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式的微物理过程方案参数化优选的研究,没有对长江中下游这一特定区域多个气象要素积云对流参数化方案进行优选。本研究在适合微物理过程、边界层等参数化方案的基础上,选用长江中下游流域为研究对象,针对降水、气温进行三种积云对流参数化方案KF(Kain-Fritsch)、BMJ(Betts-Miller-Janjic)及GF(Grell-Freitas)的优选,并同时从不同海拔、水汽来源两个角度对比分析三种方案产生差异的原因,从而针对不同天气型选择合适的参数化方案。结果表明:(1)选取的三种积云对流参数化方案在降水和气温模拟结果表现不同。KF方案在降水模拟中表现较好,日降水模拟相关系数为0.73~0.77;GF方案在气温模拟中表现优异,日均气温模拟相关系数为0.71~0.77。(2)三种方案在不同海拔高程的表现差异明显,KF和BMJ方案较好地展现了武陵山—大巴山一带降水与地形的对应关系。在经度剖面上,KF方案2015、2017年6月的降水模拟误差分别为5.96%、6.06%。GF方案则对地形抬升作用的描述过于强烈,导致剖面降雨量变化幅度较大。(3)三种方案模拟结果的水汽来源有所不同,KF方案显示印度洋季风带来充沛水汽,水成物含量少,云水混合比集中,更适合长江中下游流域的降水模拟;GF方案则显示南海暖湿气流较强,水成物含量多,云系发展旺盛,更适合强对流天气频发地区的降水模拟。(4)不同水汽来源对三种积云对流参数化方案模拟结果的精度影响不大。尽管2017年6月较2015年6月受到来自西太平洋的水汽影响更大,但降水模拟结果仍显示KF方案表现最佳。

     

    Abstract: Previous studies on parameterizing microphysical processes using the WRF model for the Yangtze River basin have not optimized cumulus convection parameterization schemes for multiple meteorological elements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in this specific region. This study focuses on the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, considering it for the first time as the research object. Based on optimal microphysical processes and boundary layer parameterization schemes, we evaluate three cumulus convection parameterization schemes: Kain–Fritsch (KF), Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), and Grell–Freitas (GF). These schemes are analyzed in terms of their ability to simulate precipitation and temperature. We also compare and analyze the reasons behind the performance differences of these schemes, considering factors such as varying altitudes and water vapor sources. The objective is to identify appropriate parameterization schemes for different synoptic types. The results show that (1) the three selected cumulus convective parameterization schemes perform differently in precipitation and air temperature simulations. The KF scheme performs better performance for precipitation, with daily precipitation simulation correlation coefficients ranging from 0.73 to 0.77. The GF scheme performs better in air temperature simulations, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.71 to 0.77. (2) Significant differences are observed among the three schemes across varying elevations. The KF and BMJ schemes more accurately depict the relationship between precipitation and topography along the Wuling–Dabashan Mountains. In the longitude profile, precipitation simulations in June 2015 and June 2017, the KF scheme shows low simulation errors of 5.96% and 6.06%, respectively. However, the GF scheme exaggerates the effect of topographic uplift, causing greater variability in simulated rainfall along these profiles. (3) The water vapor sources in the simulation results of the three schemes differ. The KF scheme shows that the Indian Ocean monsoon delivers abundant water vapor, resulting in fewer hydromorphic substances and concentrated cloud–water mixing ratios. This makes it more suitable for simulating precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Conversely, the GF scheme highlights stronger warm, humid airflow from the South China Sea, leading to more hydromorphic substances and active cloud development, making it better suited to simulating precipitation in areas with frequent heavy convection. (4) Different water vapor sources weakly affect the accuracy of the simulation results of the three cumulus convective parameterization schemes. For instance, although water vapor from the Western Pacific had a greater influence in June 2017 compared to June 2015, the KF scheme still yielded the best precipitation simulation results.

     

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