高级检索

降水实况融合分析产品在天津一次区域性暴雨过程中的适用性评估

Evaluation of the Applicability of Precipitation Merged Analysis Products to a Regional Rainstorm Process in Tianjin

  • 摘要: 基于天津254个地面观测站的逐小时降水数据,对中国气象局国家气象信息中心研发的4种降水实况融合分析产品,以及CMORPH、FY-4A两种卫星资料,针对2020年8月23~24日发生在天津市的一次区域性暴雨过程,采用多种统计指标评估4种产品和2种卫星资料的表现能力。结果表明,4种实况融合分析产品(CMPAS_RT_Res01、CMPAS_NRT_Res01、CMPAS_FAST_Res05 和CMPAS_FRT_Res05)和2种卫星资料的降水数据能够较好地捕捉到此次天津降水过程北多南少的时空分布特征,但均存在不同程度的低估现象。进一步,通过计算所有降水产品与观测数据之间的平均误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差、相关系数以及漏判率和误判率等统计指标发现,总体而言,4种实况融合分析产品的结果比两种卫星资料更接近地面观测值,且漏判率和误判率更低。此外,本文还计算了两种卫星资料和4种实况融合分析产品在各降水等级下的TS评分及晴雨准确率。结果显示,降水等级越高,TS评分和晴雨准确率越低;相比之下,4种实况融合分析产品的TS评分和晴雨准确率优于两种卫星资料。而且,CMPAS_RT_Res01和CMPAS_NRT_Res01高分辨率降水融合实况分析产品优于CMPAS_FAST_Res05和CMPAS_FRT_Res05的。本研究成果有助于深入了解4种降水实况融合分析产品在天津强降水过程中的适用性,为天津地区预报业务实践中科学合理地运用这些产品提供重要的参考依据。

     

    Abstract: We evaluated the performance of four merged analysis products (CMPAS_RT_Res01, CMPAS_NRT_Res01, CMPAS_FAST_Res05, and CMPAS_FRT_Res05) developed by the National Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration and CMORPH and FY-4A satellite products to capture a regional rainstorm process (23–24 August 2020) in Tianjin. For this evaluation, we used the hourly precipitation data of 254 ground observation stations in Tianjin. The results showed that precipitation data from the merged analysis products and satellite data effectively capture the observed spatiotemporal structures, reproducing more precipitation in the north and less precipitation in the south for the studied process. We calculated statistical indexes (e.g., mean error, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and rates of missing and false judgments) between all precipitation products and observations. Overall, the four merged analysis products are closer to the observations than the two satellites, and the care lower for the former products. Finally, we also calculated the threat score (TS) and the rainy day and sunny day classification accuracy (Percentage of Correct, PC) of the merged analysis and satellite products in each precipitation grade. The results indicated that the higher the precipitation grade, the lower the TS and PC. The TS and PC of the merged analysis products were better than those of the satellite products with CMPAS_RT_Res01 and CMPAS_NRT_Res01 higher resolution than CMPAS_FAST_Res05 and CMPAS_FRT_Res05 products. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the applicability of the four precipitation merged analysis products to heavy precipitation events in Tianjin, providing a scientific reference for using these products in operational forecasting practices for Tianjin.

     

/

返回文章
返回