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金华地区汛期降水集中度和集中期特征分析

Characteristics of Precipitation Concentration Degree and Precipitation Concentration Period during the Flood Season in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province

  • 摘要: 为探究金华地区汛期降水的非均匀分布特征及其变化趋势,本文利用逐日降水资料结合ECMWF再分析资料,运用改进的集中期和集中度算法分析了1971~2020 年金华地区汛期降水在时间上的分布特征及演变趋势。结果表明金华地区汛期降水集中期首日在6月13日,与常年入梅时间吻合;金华地区总体上降水时间分布较均匀但年际变化大;降水集中度和集中期均存在准18 a周期。天气形势场上,降水集中年份最明显的异常为西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西,以及菲律宾地区异常反气旋。菲律宾地区异常反气旋使初夏季节我国东部沿海西南气流水汽输送旺盛,并且造成西北太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,较强的副热带高压与西风槽之间的位势梯度可以增大西南暖湿气流的输送,减慢西风槽脊的移动,以形成较为稳定的环流配置,造成持续降水的出现,而在强的副热带高压继续西伸北抬后,西风带系统南下受阻,大型暖高压的下沉气流则会导致持续高温干旱酷暑天气,从而导致降水的异常集中。海温场上,降水异常集中年份前冬中东太平洋海温异常偏高,随后赤道中东太平洋海温差值逐渐转为显著的负异常,这种特征表明降水异常集中年份可能出现在厄尔尼诺的衰减阶段。

     

    Abstract: Generally, Jinhua has a uniform temporal distribution of precipitation; however, with large interannual variability, there is a quasi-18-year precipitation concentration degree and concentration period. To investigate the nonuniform distribution characteristics of the flood season precipitation and trend, this research analyzes the temporal distribution characteristics and evolution trend of the flood season precipitation in Jinhua from 1971 to 2020. The research involves using daily precipitation data combined with ECMWF reanalysis data and employing improved precipitation concentration and precipitation concentration period indices. The results show that the initial day of the precipitation concentration period is June 13, which coincides with the initial day of the monsoon season. With regard to the sea surface temperature (SST) field, an anomalously high SST results in the east−central Pacific Ocean during the winter before the year of precipitation concentration anomaly; then, the SST difference in the east-central Pacific Ocean at the equator gradually turns into a significant negative anomaly, suggesting that years with anomalously concentrated precipitation may occur during the decaying stage of El Niño. The most notable anomalies in the situation field are the strong and westerly subtropical high pressure in the western Pacific and the anticyclones in the Philippines region. The anomalous anticyclones allow for high moisture transport from the southwesterly flow along the eastern coast of China during the early summer season. This simultaneous movement causes the subtropical-high pressure to increase and extend westward. The potential gradient between the increased subtropical-high pressure and westerly trough can increase the transport of warm and humid air from the southwest and slow the movement of the westerly trough ridge. The gradient then forms a stable circulation configuration, resulting in the emergence of sustained precipitation. After the increased subtropical-high pressure continues to extend westward and lift northward, the westerly wind belt system is blocked southward. The high pressure of the involved large sinking-warm-air flow leads to persistent high temperatures and drought heat weather, resulting in anomalous precipitation concentration.

     

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