Abstract:
The study regarding the trend of low-temperature cold waves amid global warming represents a fundamental aspect of climate change research, offering important information for human production and life. Using daily average and minimum temperature records from 75 meteorological stations across Guangxi from 1961 to 2022, the occurrence, frequency, and severity of cold waves were analyzed based on established criteria for the region. Various statistical methods, including the WS2001 linear trend analysis, correlation, and composite analyses, were employed to study the climate change characteristics of cold waves and the corresponding atmospheric circulation in Guangxi. Results showed that 97.9% of cold waves occurred between November and March, peaking between December and February. The number of cold wave days and their frequency exhibited east-to-west and north-to-south decrements, respectively, while the intensity of cold waves was highest in central Guangxi, followed by the eastern region and then western regions. Over the past six decades, there has been a noticeable decrease in both the number of cold wave days at individual stations and their overall frequency. This decline was more pronounced in the northern and eastern parts of Guangxi compared to the southern and western areas. However, the average intensity of cold waves showed a marginal upward trend, particularly in the central and eastern regions. In terms of regional cold wave activity in Guangxi, there were no significant changes in the number of cold wave days, intensity, and the number of stations. The main cold wave season in Guangxi has experienced notable temperature increases, with a significant shift observed in 1998. Despite the reduction in cold wave frequency following global warming, the decrease in the number of cold wave days at a regional level was relatively small, and there was a slight increase in both station-specific and regional cold wave intensities. Furthermore, the study revealed that the cold wave frequency in Guangxi is higher when the northern boundary position of the South China Sea subtropical high lies to the south. Additionally, a greater vortex area and intensity index in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a stronger Ural high ridge, a weaker deep East Asian trough, and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation contribute to increased cold wave activity.