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1951~2020年海南岛旱涝急转时空变化特征及其驱动力研究

Study on the Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Driving Forces of Drought–Flood Abrupt Alternation in Hainan Island from 1951 to 2020

  • 摘要: 根据1951~2020年海南岛19个气象站的逐日降水数据,基于长周期旱涝急转指数(Long-cycle Drought–Flood Abrupt Alternation Index, LDFAI)识别旱涝急转事件,采用Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、R/S分析法及多元线性回归等方法,研究海南岛的旱涝急转现象的时空分布特征及其驱动力。结果表明:1)1951~2020年,乐东、保亭的LDFAI存在显著的减少趋势,其余17个气象站LDFAI变化趋势均不显著;海南岛LDFAI突变年份相对分散,儋州、文昌及琼中的潜在突变年份为2006年,三亚、保亭及陵水为2019年,白沙、乐东、琼海和万宁的突变年份分别为1958年、1976年、1992年和2017年。2)1951~2020年海南岛共发生27次旱涝急转事件,各站5~10月LDFAI序列在4 a、15~20 a及40 a左右尺度上的周期性振荡较为明显,20 a周期最为活跃,一直存在且比较明显;万宁及陵水两地LDFAI的未来趋势与1951~2020年相反。3)海南岛发生旱涝急转事件的主要影响因子是降水量,遥相关指数中Niño3.4对旱涝急转事件的影响最为显著。气象因子与4个遥相关因子耦合的决定系数中,乐东最大,与耦合单一遥相关因子相比,气象因子与遥相关因子耦合对儋州的影响最大。遥相关因子对海南岛旱涝急转事件的影响均呈增加趋势,进一步证明了大气环流异常增加了旱涝急转事件发生的频率。

     

    Abstract: Daily precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations on Hainan Island from 1951 to 2020 were analyzed to identify drought–flood abrupt alternation events using the Long-cycle Drought–Flood Abrupt Alternation Index (LDFAI). The Mann-Kendall test, wavelet analysis, R/S analysis, and multiple linear regression were used to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and the driving forces behind these events. The results showed the following: 1) From 1951 to 2020, there was a significant decrease in LDFAI in Ledong and Baoting, while the other 17 meteorological stations showed no significant change. The years of LDFAI mutations across Hainan Island were scattered, with potential mutations occurring in Danzhou, Wenchang, and Qiongzhong in 2006; Sanya, Baoting, and Lingshui in 2019; and Baisha, Ledong, Qionghai, and Wanning in 1958, 1976, 1992, and 2017, respectively. 2) Hainan Island experienced 27 abrupt drought–flood alternation events from 1951 to 2020. The periodic oscillations of the LDFAI sequence from May to October at various stations were more pronounced at scales of 4 a, 15–20 a, and 40 a, with the 20-a cycle being the most active, persistent, and significant. The future trends of the LDFAI in Wanning and Lingshui were anticipated to be opposite to that observed from 1951 to 2020. 3) Precipitation emerged as the main influencing factor for abrupt drought–flood alternation events on Hainan Island. Among the teleconnection indices, Niño3.4 had the most significant impact on these events. The coupling coefficients of the meteorological factors (M) and teleconnection factors (T) were the highest in Ledong. Compared with the coupling of a single teleconnection factor, the coupling of M and T had the greatest impact on Danzhou. The influence of teleconnection factors on the occurrence of drought–flood abrupt alternation events on Hainan Island shows an increasing trend, further proving that abnormal atmospheric circulation patterns are increasing the frequency of these events.

     

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