Abstract:
A regional integrated assessment model RICE (Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) was selected to evaluate the carbon-neutral path of global subregions. Based on the improved damage function of the RICE model, the improved RICE model is used to analyze and estimate the potential carbon neutrality timing and impacts of future climate changes in the world and 12 regions under different emission reduction scenarios. The results show that after improving the loss function, the ability of the RICE model to simulate future climate change damages is significantly improved. Under different scenarios, the absolute value of climate change losses in developed regions in the future will be larger but the proportion of climate change losses in regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is relatively low. By contrast, an increase in climate change losses is more obvious in developing countries, which bear more climate change risks. Under the medium emission scenario (Scenario 2), some developing countries will not be able to achieve carbon neutrality until after 2085. Furthermore, China will not be able to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. The carbon neutrality path set for China shows that it needs to peak carbon emissions around 2040 and rapidly reduce carbon emissions thereafter. Only by achieving carbon peak as early as possible can we ultimately achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.