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基于RICE模型的不同减排政策下全球分区域碳中和预估

Estimation of Global Sub-regional Carbon Neutrality under Different Emission Reduction Policies Based on the RICE Model

  • 摘要: 选取分区域的综合评估模型RICE来评估全球分区域的碳中和路径,在改进了RICE模型的损失函数的基础上,利用改进的RICE模型分析研判了不同减排情景下全球以及12个区域的潜在碳中和时间点以及区域未来气候变化潜在损失。结果表明,改进损失函数后,RICE模型对未来气候变化损失的模拟能力显著提升。在不同情景下,未来发达国家区域的气候变化损失绝对值较大,但是气候变化损失占地区生产总值的比例相对较低。发展中国家区域气候变化损失的增加更加明显,并承受更多的气候变化风险。在中等排放情景下(情景二),部分发展中国家区域在2085年以后才能达到碳中和,中国在2060年无法达到碳中和。针对中国设定的碳中和路径表明,中国需要在2040年前后碳达峰,并在此之后迅速减少碳排放。只有尽早实现碳达峰,才能最终实现碳中和目标。

     

    Abstract: A regional integrated assessment model RICE (Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) was selected to evaluate the carbon-neutral path of global subregions. Based on the improved damage function of the RICE model, the improved RICE model is used to analyze and estimate the potential carbon neutrality timing and impacts of future climate changes in the world and 12 regions under different emission reduction scenarios. The results show that after improving the loss function, the ability of the RICE model to simulate future climate change damages is significantly improved. Under different scenarios, the absolute value of climate change losses in developed regions in the future will be larger but the proportion of climate change losses in regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is relatively low. By contrast, an increase in climate change losses is more obvious in developing countries, which bear more climate change risks. Under the medium emission scenario (Scenario 2), some developing countries will not be able to achieve carbon neutrality until after 2085. Furthermore, China will not be able to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. The carbon neutrality path set for China shows that it needs to peak carbon emissions around 2040 and rapidly reduce carbon emissions thereafter. Only by achieving carbon peak as early as possible can we ultimately achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.

     

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