高级检索

基于综合强度指数和受灾面积的区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及特征分析

Objective Identification and Characteristics Analysis of Regional Rainstorm Processes Based on a Comprehensive Intensity Index and Affected Areas

  • 摘要: 本文提出一种基于综合强度指数和受灾面积的区域性暴雨过程客观识别标准确定方法。以河北省为例,利用 1971~2020 年河北省 142 个国家气象观测站逐日降水数据,选取最大过程降水量、最大日降水量、影响范围、持续时间、平均强度和平均范围为评估指标,构建了 6 种区域性暴雨过程综合强度指数模型;基于综合强度指数与受灾面积相关性分析,判定最优的综合强度评估方法,进而确定了河北省区域性暴雨过程的最优客观识别标准。利用本标准对河北省区域性暴雨过程进行识别,并分析时空变化特征。结果表明:本方法可有效确定区域性暴雨过程识别标准,识别结果与灾情资料具有较好的一致性和相关性,适用于区域性暴雨过程客观化识别,易于应用推广。1971~2020 年,河北省共发生区域性暴雨过程 252次,年均 5.0 次,发生次数呈下降趋势,综合强度指数呈不明显下降;区域性暴雨过程 4~11月均有发生,主要集中在 7、8 月,出现次数占全年总次数的 77%;区域性暴雨过程发生站次分布呈西北少东南多的趋势,主要集中在中部、南部和环渤海地区,西北地区最少。

     

    Abstract: We propose a method for determining objective identification criteria for regional rainstorm processes based on a comprehensive intensity index and affected areas using Hebei Province as an example. Utilizing daily precipitation data from 142 national meteorological stations in the Hebei Province from 1971 to 2020, we developed six methods for analyzing the comprehensive intensity indices of rainstorm disaster events. These methods were based on the maximum precipitation, maximum daily precipitation, total number of rainstorm stations, event duration, average precipitation of daily rainstorm stations, and average number of daily rainstorm stations. According to the correlation analysis between the comprehensive intensity index and affected areas, the optimal assessment method for the comprehensive intensity index and the optimal objective identification criteria for regional rainstorm processes in Hebei Province were determined. These criteria were then used to identify regional rainstorm processes in Hebei Province, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the processes were analyzed. Results showed that the method effectively established identification criteria for regional rainstorm processes, and the identification results exhibited good consistency and correlation with disaster data. Thus, the method was suitable for objectively identifying regional rainstorm processes and was easy to employ and promote due to the clear logical relationship between the identification standard of regional rainstorm process and this method. From 1971 to 2020, 252 regional rainstorm processes occurred in Hebei Province, with an annual average of 5.0. The number of rainstorm occurrences showed a decreasing trend, and the comprehensive intensity index showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend. These regional rainstorm processes occurred from April to November, with most events (77%) occurring in July and August. The frequency of the regional rainstorm processes tended to increase from northwest to southeast, with the highest concentration observed in the central, southern, and Bohai Rim regions and the lowest in the northwest.

     

/

返回文章
返回