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云南西南部2010年代5~6月降水突变减少的成因分析

Analysis of the Causes of Sudden Decrease in Precipitation in Southwestern Yunnan from May to June in the 2010s

  • 摘要: 5~6月是云南干季和雨季转换的关键期,其间降水量的多寡对当地农业生产和生态环境有重要影响,也是雨季开始期早晚的重要指标。本文利用1971~2022年云南5~6月站点观测降水资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对该区域5~6月降水的变化特征进行分析研究,结果发现:云南西南部5~6月降水呈现显著下降的趋势,并在2009年发生气候突变,2010年之后显著减少。进一步的分析表明,热带西印度洋海温暖异常,会导致中南半岛北部和云南地区上空200 hPa高层大气辐散和700 hPa辐合减弱,不利于大气垂直上升运动和降水;还会导致中亚和孟加拉湾地区500 hPa高度场正异常,使得中高纬地区东移南下的冷空气和南支槽前的西南气流减弱,不利于云南西南部地区降水天气过程的形成;同时,西印度洋海温暖异常也导致大气低层从南海海域到中南半岛形成异常反气旋环流,云南出现西北风异常,西南风的水汽输送减弱,进而造成云南西南部5~6月降水减少。热带西印度洋海温持续上升及其在2010年代末期的突变增暖,是导致云南西南部降水突变减少的关键驱动因子。

     

    Abstract: May–June marks a critical transition from the dry season to the rainy season in Yunnan, during which precipitation significantly influences local agricultural production and the ecological environment. It also serves as an important indicator of the onset time of the rainy season. This study examines precipitation variability in Yunnan during May–June utilizing observational precipitation data from 1971 to 2022, along with concurrent NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals a significant decreasing trend in cumulative precipitation in southwestern Yunnan from May to June, with a climate change point identified in 2009 and a marked reduction after 2010. Further investigation indicates that the warm anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical western Indian Ocean weakens divergence at 200 hPa and convergence at 700 hPa over the northern Indo-China Peninsula and Yunnan, hindering vertical atmospheric uplift and precipitation. Additionally, a positive anomaly in the 500-hPa height field over central Asia and the Bay of Bengal reduces the cold air from mid-to-high latitudes and the southwest airflow ahead of the southern branch trough, thereby inhibiting precipitation processes in southwestern Yunnan. Concurrently, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation from the South China Sea to the Indo-China Peninsula in the lower atmosphere generates anomalous northwest winds over Yunnan, weakening moisture transport by southwest winds and further contributing to the decrease in precipitation. The continuous increase in the SST of the tropical western Indian Ocean and its abrupt warming in the late 2010s are identified as key drivers for the sudden decrease in precipitation in southwestern Yunnan during May–June.

     

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