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1961~2020年中国极端降水指数时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal Variations in the Extreme Precipitation Index in China during 1961-2020

  • 摘要: 基于1961~2020年全国699个气象站点逐日降水数据,选取总降水量(PRCPTOT)、最大连续5 d降水量(Rx5day)和超过第95百分位数的年总降水量(R95p)3种指数表征极端降水事件,采用M-K显著性和突变检验、Morlet小波、Hurst指数趋势预测等方法研究中国不同干湿区极端降水事件的时空变化特征及未来变化趋势。结果表明,各干湿区极端降水指数整体变化幅度大小关系为干旱区>湿润区>半湿润区>半干旱区;各极端降水指数变化幅度为R95p>PRCPTOT>Rx5day,其中R95p和PRCPTOT为增长趋势,Rx5day为减小趋势;湿润区极端降水指数显著性增多的站数最多,各区降水指数显著增大的站点个数明显多于显著减小的站点个数,长三角和珠三角城市群极端降水显著增大;湿润区的R95p在2014年前后发生了由少到多的突变,其余区域的极端降水指数未发生突变现象;小波分析结果表明,仅半干旱和湿润区Rx5day存在显著的准6年周期、干旱区R95p存在显著的准2年周期、半湿润区R95p存在显著的准8年周期(P<0.05);除半湿润区PRCPTOT和半干旱区Rx5day外,未来极端降水指数总体将呈现增长趋势。本文的结果对理解和预测中国区域极端降水变化及其区域性差异提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data from 699 meteorological stations across China from 1961 to 2020, three indices were selected to characterize extreme precipitation events: total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum consecutive five-day precipitation (Rx5day), and total annual precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile (R95p). The study employed the M–K test for significance and mutation, the Morlet wavelet, the Hurst index, and trend prediction to characterize the spatial and temporal changes in extreme precipitation events in different wet and dry zones in China and to predict future trends. Results revealed the following: the overall changes in extreme precipitation indices in dry and wet zones followed the trend of arid zone > humid zone > semi-humid zone > semi-arid zone; changes in extreme precipitation indices were as follows: R95p > PRCPTOT > Rx5day, with an increasing trend in R95p and PRCPTOT and a decreasing trend in Rx5day; the wet zone had the largest number of stations exhibiting a significant increase in extreme precipitation indices; and most stations in each zone showed significant increase in extreme precipitation indices. Notably, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations experienced a significant increase in extreme precipitation. Furthermore, R95p in the humid zone varied from less to more around 2014, and there was no mutation in the extreme precipitation index in the rest of the regions. The wavelet analysis results showed that the quasi-six-year cycle of Rx5day in semi-arid and humid zones and the quasi-six-year cycle of R95p in arid zones were the only two regions that demonstrated a significant increase in the precipitation index. The quasi-two-year cycle of R95p in arid zones and the quasi-eight-year cycle of R95p in the semi-humid zone passed the 0.05 significance level test. Moreover, except for PRCPTOT in the semi-humid zone and Rx5day in the semi-arid zone, extreme precipitation indices would generally show an increasing trend in the future. Thus, the results of this paper can be used as a reference for understanding and predicting regional changes in extreme precipitation and their differences across various parts of China.

     

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