Abstract:
Based on the daily precipitation data from 699 meteorological stations across China from 1961 to 2020, three indices were selected to characterize extreme precipitation events: total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum consecutive five-day precipitation (Rx5day), and total annual precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile (R95p). The study employed the M–K test for significance and mutation, the Morlet wavelet, the Hurst index, and trend prediction to characterize the spatial and temporal changes in extreme precipitation events in different wet and dry zones in China and to predict future trends. Results revealed the following: the overall changes in extreme precipitation indices in dry and wet zones followed the trend of arid zone > humid zone > semi-humid zone > semi-arid zone; changes in extreme precipitation indices were as follows: R95p > PRCPTOT > Rx5day, with an increasing trend in R95p and PRCPTOT and a decreasing trend in Rx5day; the wet zone had the largest number of stations exhibiting a significant increase in extreme precipitation indices; and most stations in each zone showed significant increase in extreme precipitation indices. Notably, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations experienced a significant increase in extreme precipitation. Furthermore, R95p in the humid zone varied from less to more around 2014, and there was no mutation in the extreme precipitation index in the rest of the regions. The wavelet analysis results showed that the quasi-six-year cycle of Rx5day in semi-arid and humid zones and the quasi-six-year cycle of R95p in arid zones were the only two regions that demonstrated a significant increase in the precipitation index. The quasi-two-year cycle of R95p in arid zones and the quasi-eight-year cycle of R95p in the semi-humid zone passed the 0.05 significance level test. Moreover, except for PRCPTOT in the semi-humid zone and Rx5day in the semi-arid zone, extreme precipitation indices would generally show an increasing trend in the future. Thus, the results of this paper can be used as a reference for understanding and predicting regional changes in extreme precipitation and their differences across various parts of China.