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长三角城市群气象因子对环境空气质量的影响及变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Influence and Changing Trends of Meteorological Factors on Ambient Air Quality in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

  • 摘要: 利用中国环境监测总站大气环境监测数据以及美国国家气候数据中心的气象要素数据,通过逐步回归和相关性分析法,分析了2015~2022年长三角城市群空气质量的时空变化特征,建立了环境空气质量与各气象因子的关联,揭示了气象因子对环境空气质量影响的年变化趋势。结果表明:(1)2015~2022年长三角城市群空气质量向好发展,江苏、上海、安徽和浙江地区全年空气质量优良率分别以2.99%、2.56%、2.29%、1.96%的速率增长;长三角城市群空气质量指数(Air Quality Index, AQI)月变化趋势相似,冬季高(AQI均值为90.1)夏季低(AQI均值为39.7)。(2)夏季对长三角城市群空气质量影响最大的气象因子是气压(有污染时气压与AQI的相关性均值为0.119,无污染时相关性均值为0.09),且气压与AQI的相关性在有污染和无污染时分别以每年6.71%和0.58%的速率增长。(3)冬季对长三角城市群空气质量影响最大的气象因子是风速(无污染时相关性均值为−0.137;有污染时相关性均值在2019年之前和2019年之后分别为−0.120和0.249);且存在污染和无污染时,风速与AQI的相关性分别以每年3.72%和0.39%的速率上升。这些结果表明在夏季和冬季,气压和风速对长三角城市群空气质量的影响持续增加。

     

    Abstract: Based on the atmospheric environment monitoring data of the China environmental monitoring station and the meteorological elements data of the National Climatic Data Center of the United States, this paper analyzed the spatio–temporal variation characteristics of air quality in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2015 to 2022. This study utilized stepwise regression and correlation analysis and established the correlation between ambient air quality and various meteorological factors. The changing trend of the influence of meteorological factors on ambient air quality was studied. The results showed that: (1) The air quality in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration developed well during 2015–2022, and the annual rates of good air quality in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, and Zhejiang increased by 2.99%, 2.56%, 2.29%, and 1.96%, respectively. The monthly variation trend of the air quality index (AQI) in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was similar, with a high trend in winter (the average AQI was 90.1) and a low trend in summer (the average AQI was 39.7). (2) The meteorological factor with the most significant impact on air quality in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in summer is pressure (the correlation between pressure and AQI is 0.119 when there is pollution and 0.09 when there is no pollution). Further, the correlation between pressure and AQI increases at a rate of 6.71% and 0.58% per year when there is pollution and no pollution, respectively. (3) The meteorological factor with the greatest impact on the air quality in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in winter is wind speed (the correlation is −0.137 when there is no pollution; with pollution, the correlations were −0.120 and 0.249 before and after 2019, respectively). The correlation between wind speed and AQI increases at the rate of 3.72% and 0.39% per year when there is pollution and no pollution, respectively. These results indicate that the effects of pressure and wind speed on air quality in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration continue to increase in summer and winter.

     

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