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基于时间尺度分离的江南梅雨量组合降尺度预测模型

A Hybrid Forecast Model with Time-Scale Decomposition for Rainfall over Jiangnan during Meiyu Season

  • 摘要: 采用中国气象局发布的梅雨国家标准资料,以江南梅雨量为代表,分析了梅雨量多时间尺度变化特征。在此基础上,从前期海洋外强迫影响因子和美国第2代动力气候模式(CFSv2)5月起报的6~7月平均的多要素预报场中,选取不同时间尺度的预测因子,建立了基于时间尺度分离的江南梅雨量的组合降尺度预测模型,结果表明:1)江南梅雨量具有显著的年际变率和年代际变率,二者的标准差分别为120.1 mm和100.3 mm,变率幅度相当。2)年际尺度上,江南梅雨量与前冬ENSO、CFSv2预测的6~7月西北太平洋海平面气压等因子密切相关;年代际尺度上,江南梅雨量与前冬西半球暖池面积、CFSv2预测的6~7月西北太平洋海平面气压和热带印度洋200 hPa纬向风等因子密切相关。3)利用上述因子和逐步回归方法分别建立年际分量预测模型和年代际分量预测模型,二者相加得到江南梅雨量的组合降尺度预测结果。在2014~2023年的独立检验中,模型估计的江南梅雨量和观测的相关系数为0.76,距平符号一致率为90.0%,而CFSv2模式5月起报的江南区6~7月降水量的上述两项检验指标分别为0.12和50.0%。相比于模式直接预测的降水,组合降尺度预测模型的结果有明显改进,该模型可为江南梅雨量的预测提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The characteristics of the multi-time scale variation of rainfall over Jiangnan during Meiyu season have been analyzed by using the national standard data of Meiyu from China Meteorological Administration. On this basis, we developed a hybrid statistical downscaling prediction model (HSDPM) based on a time-scale decomposition approach, which effectively improved the forecasting ability of rainfall over Jiangnan during Meiyu season (JNMYR), by observing well-known sea surface temperature (SST) indices and outputs from Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts and predictions. The results showed that: (1) There are significant interannual and interdecadal variability of JNMYR, and the standard deviations of the two are 120.1mm and 100.3mm, respectively. (2) We found that the interannual variability of the JNMYR is closely related to the observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies (or ENSO) in the preceding winter and the sea level pressure in June–July over the Northwest Pacific by CFSv2 predicted in May. On the other hand, the interdecadal variability of the JNMYR is linked to the area of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) in prewinter according to the observations, the sea level pressure over the Northwest Pacific and the 200hPa zonal wind in the tropical Indian Ocean in June–July by CFSv2 predicted in May. (3) On this basis, both the interannual and interdecadal components of the JNMYR are effectively predicted using the corresponding predictors via multiple regression; thus, the HSDPM is ultimately established by combining the above two components. Compared with the original CFSv2 model, the HSDPM model achieves a considerable improvement in performance in predicting the JNMYR. Specifically, the temporal correlation coefficient and anomaly sign consistency rate between the observed and HSDPM-predicted JNMYR in the independent validation period (2014–2023) are 0.76 and 90.0%, respectively, which are significantly greater than the above two forecasting index values of 0.12 and 50.0%, respectively, obtained from the original CFSv2 predictions. The application of the HSDPM may be beneficial for drought and flood prevention and mitigation in Jiangnan during Meiyu season.

     

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