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考虑风速空间异质性的LSTM-AM雾天能见度预测模型

LSTM-AM Fog Visibility Prediction Model Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity of Wind Speed

  • 摘要: 针对现有方法在雾天能见度预测时对风速空间异质性考虑不足导致预测准确性和稳定性不高的问题,构建了考虑风速空间异质性的长短期记忆神经网络-注意力机制(LSTM-AM)雾天能见度预测模型。利用半变异函数对风速不同空间位置的变化特征进行量化,融合邻近点空间分布及风速差异信息,采用风向夹角和变异值对风速空间异质性特征进行加权,实现对风速空间异质性的有效提取;利用AM机制能加强对关键信息关注的优势对LSTM方法进行改进,以有效捕捉和反映关键时刻气象因子对雾天能见度的影响,增强模型对重要时序信息关注的能力和模型预测的准确性,实现风速空间异质性下对雾天能见度的预测。研究结果表明,本文模型相关系数提升10%~20%,均方根误差下降25%~40%,平均绝对误差下降26.3%~39.1%,具有较高的雾天能见度预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Insufficient consideration of the spatial heterogeneity of wind speed in existing methods for fog visibility prediction leads to low accuracy and stability. To address this issue, this paper presents a long short-term memory neural network with an attention mechanism (LSTM-AM) model for fog visibility prediction that considers the spatial heterogeneity of wind speed. This model quantifies the variation characteristics of wind speed at different spatial locations using a semi-variogram, integrating spatial distribution of neighboring points and differences in wind speed. It employs wind direction angles and variation values to weigh and effectively extract the features of wind speed spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the attention mechanism enhances the LSTM model by improving its focus on key information, enabling it to effectively capture and reflect the impact of critical meteorological factors on fog visibility. This enhances the model’s ability to consider important temporal information and improves accuracy under wind speed spatial heterogeneity. The results indicate that the proposed model improves R2 by 10%–20%, reduces root mean square error by 25%–40%, and decreases mean absolute error by 26.3%–39.1%, demonstrating high accuracy and stability in fog visibility prediction.

     

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