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海河流域汛期面雨量预报检验评估

Performance Evaluation of the Forecasting of Areal Rainfall for the Haihe River Basin during the Flood Season

  • 摘要: 基于站点观测资料、国家指导预报(NGWD)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)全球模式、中国气象局北京快速更新循环数值预报系统(CMA_BJ)区域模式和海河流域气象中心(LYK)的主观预报结果,采用平均绝对误差、准确率、模糊评分、TS(Threat Score)评分、漏报率和空报率等6个统计检验指标,对海河流域2023年汛期(6~9月)面雨量预报效果进行评估检验。结果表明:(1)面雨量的预报效果随预报时效(24 h、48 h、72 h)延长而逐渐下降。(2)ECMWF预报效果整体上优于其他模式,其次是LYK、NGWD以及CMA_BJ。(3)分析典型个例发现,ECMWF、LYK及NGWD对于24 h预报时效的强降水过程预报质量较好。但是CMA_BJ在强降水过程的等级预报中具有更大的优势,预报等级误差更小,预报结果更接近于实况。

     

    Abstract: Based on observations, forecasts for objective rainfall were obtained from NGWD (National Guidance Weather Forecast), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts), and CMA_BJ, while forecasts for subjective rainfall were obtained from the Haihe River Basin Meteorological Center (LYK), the forecasting performances of the three prediction models for objective rainfall and a subjective rainfall mentioned above were evaluated for areal rainfall in the Haihe River basin using mean absolute error, fuzzy grading, percentage correct, threat score, missing ratio, and false alarm ratio. The evaluation results are as follows: (1) The performances gradually declined with the extension of the period of validity (i.e., 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h). (2) ECMWF demonstrated an overall better performance than the other models, followed by LYK, NGWD, and CMA_BJ. (3) An analysis of typical rain events revealed that the grades of areal rainfall forecasts through ECMWF, LYK, and NGWD exhibited good predictive quality with a forecasting time of 24 h. However, the forecasting results generated by CMA_BJ exhibited remarkable advantages in predicting the level of heavy precipitation processes with lower forecast level errors, and more close proximity to the observation results to a greater extent..

     

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