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青藏高原地区考虑融雪的土壤湿度间接Nudging方案对中国气候模拟的影响

Effects of Snowmelt Processes on Sub-Seasonal Climate Prediction in China: A Study Using Indirect Nudging Soil Moisture Scheme over the Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原土壤湿度的模拟受春季融雪过程的影响,具有较大的不确定性,因此会对夏季气候的模拟产生重要的影响。为探讨春季融雪过程引起的土壤湿度偏差对夏季气候的模拟影响,本文在WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)模式中的Pleim-Xiu间接同化土壤湿度方案中引入了考虑融雪过程的松弛项,开展了跨季节气候模拟,分析了春季融雪过程对青藏高原土壤湿度及地表非绝热加热模拟的影响,探讨了春季融雪引起的土壤湿度异常对夏季中国气候的影响。结果表明,在陆面模式的同化系统中考虑融雪过程使模拟的土壤湿度更接近观测,但存在空间差异;改进的同化方案降低了高原土壤湿度的误差,尤其对高原南部土壤偏湿的模拟偏差改进较为明显。土壤湿度偏差的减小提高了高原地表潜热的模拟效果,但对地表感热的模拟改进较小。同化系统中考虑融雪过程可提高我国北方夏季降水的模拟能力,并降低我国东部气温偏高的模拟误差。

     

    Abstract: The simulation of soil moisture on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is influenced by the spring snowmelt process, which involves considerable uncertainty and substantially influences summer climate simulations. To explore the effects of snowmelt-induced variations in spring soil moisture on summer climate modeling, this study incorporated a relaxation term representing the snowmelt process into the Pleim–Xiu assimilation soil moisture scheme within the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model). Cross-season climate simulations were conducted to evaluate the effect of spring snowmelt on soil moisture and surface nonadiabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau. The study also analyzed how snowmelt-driven soil moisture anomalies in spring influence summer climate patterns across China. The results show that including the snowmelt process in the land surface model’s assimilation system brings simulated soil moisture values closer to observations, though notable spatial variations remain. The improved assimilation scheme reduces errors related to soils moisture in the plateau, with especially notable improvements in the southern plateau. Low deviations in soil moisture enhance the accuracy of simulated surface latent heat, though improvements in surface sensible heat simulation are limited. Moreover, incorporating the snowmelt process into the assimilation system improves the model’s accuracy in simulating summer precipitation in northern China and reduces the overestimation of summer temperatures in eastern China.

     

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