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ENSO对中国中东部不同季节太阳能资源的可能影响

Possible Influences of ENSO on Solar Energy Resources during Different Seasons in Central-Eastern China

  • 摘要: 作为最重要的可再生清洁能源之一,太阳能资源受到气候因子的显著影响。本文利用1979~2023年英国Hadley中心逐月海表温度和欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代逐月大气再分析资料,采用相关、回归和合成等方法,研究了ENSO对中国中东部不同季节太阳总辐射(Total Solar Irradiation, TSI)的影响特征,并探讨了这种影响的可能物理机制。结果表明,我国中东部TSI存在显著的年际变率,与ENSO事件息息相关。在El Niño发展期夏秋季,我国中东部TSI异常总体呈“华北多华南少”的南北偶极型分布;成熟期冬季TSI整体偏少,大值区位于华南地区;衰减期春季则呈现“华东少西南多”的东西偶极型分布;衰减期夏季主要表现为长江中上游地区的显著偏少。当La Niña发生时,各季节TSI异常分布与El Niño年基本相反,但强度较弱,表现出一定的ENSO影响非对称性。进一步研究表明,ENSO对我国中东部不同季节TSI的影响主要与ENSO相关的环流和水汽异常引起的总云量变化对太阳直接辐射的反射作用有关。本研究对于太阳能光伏发电潜能预测以及预期收益评估等问题具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: As one of the most important types of renewable and clean energies, solar energy resources are substantially influenced by climate factors. Based on the monthly sea surface temperature dataset from the Hadley Center and the atmospheric reanalysis dataset from the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts reanalysis for the 1979–2023 period, this paper investigates the possible effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the total solar irradiation (TSI) during different seasons in central-eastern China using the correlation analysis, regression analysis, and composite analysis. TSI in central-eastern China is found to exhibit pronounced interannual variability, which is closely related to ENSO. During the developing summer and autumn of an El Niño event, the TSI anomaly exhibits a dipole structure of “positive in the north and negative in the south”. This pattern shifts to a monotonic pattern in central-eastern China during the mature winter season, with the peak anomaly located in southern China. During the El Niño decaying spring, a dipole structure of “positive in the southwest and negative in the east” is observed. In addition, during the El Niño decaying summer, the negative TSI anomaly is detected in the region of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. When La Niña events occur, the anomaly patterns are generally reversed but with a smaller amplitude, indicating an asymmetric ENSO influence on TSI to some extent. Further analysis reveals that the ENSO influence is related to the reflection effect by the total cloud cover change resulting from the ENSO-induced atmospheric anomalies in circulation and humidity. The results of this paper indicate important implications for the seasonal-to-interannual prediction of photovoltaic power capacity and for the related benefit assessment.

     

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