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考虑CO2植被生理效应的淮河流域干湿变化成因分析

Causes for the Changes in Dryness/Wetness over the Huai River Basin Considering Vegetation Physiological Effects of CO2

  • 摘要: CO2浓度升高通过增加地表阻抗改变蒸散发过程,进而影响干湿变化;因此,充分考虑这一植被生理效应,对于重新认识干湿演变规律和深入理解相关机理具有重要意义.本研究基于考虑CO2植被生理效应的FAO-56(Food and Agriculture Organization-56)PM(Penman–Monteith)公式和自校准帕尔默干旱指数,详细分析了 1965~2020年淮河流域干湿变化特征;同时,利用多控制因子联立求解法量化了不同影响因子对干湿变化的影响,揭示了相关机理.结果表明:无论是年还是季节(除春季)尺度上,流域平均及流域 51%以上的地区均经历了显著(p<0.05)变湿.就流域整体而言,其年、夏季、秋季和冬季变湿可归咎于降水增加,而春季变湿则可归咎于风速下降;52.7%的地区显示春季的干湿变化受风速主导,而年和其他季节则显示 57%以上的地区由降水主导

     

    Abstract: Elevated CO2 concentrations can modify evapotranspiration processes by increasing surface resistance, affecting changes in dryness and wetness. Consequently, it is imperative to undertake a comprehensive examination of the physiological impact of CO2 on vegetation, aiming to elucidate the underlying mechanisms governing changes in dryness and wetness. This study comprehensively analyzed the changes in dryness and wetness over the Huai River Basin from 1965 to 2020. The analysis was based on the improved FAO-56 (Food and Agriculture Organization-56) Penman–Monteith equation, incorporating the physiological effect of CO2 on vegetation and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, a joint-solution method with multiple sensitivity experiments was employed to quantify the impacts of different influential factors on the changes in dryness and wetness, thereby revealing the underlying mechanisms. Results indicated that over the past 56 years, the Huai River Basin, along with more than 51% of the regions, has undergone significant (p<0.05) wetting on annual and seasonal (excluding spring) time scales. The annual wetting trends in the study region can be attributed to increased precipitation. However, the seasonal dominant factors for these wetting trends differ, primarily characterized by a decline in wind speed in spring but increased precipitation in the other seasons. Geographically, wind speed dominated 52.7% of the areas in spring. In comparison, precipitation significantly contributed to the dryness/wetness over more than 57% of the areas on an annual basis and during the other three seasons.

     

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