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重污染天气事件预报的目标观测:思考和展望

Targeted Observations for Severe Air Pollution Event Forecasting: Insights and Prospects

  • 摘要: 以细颗粒物(PM2.5)和O3为主的大气复合污染事件,是当前中国大气环境治理面临的重大挑战之一。实现大气复合污染物的精准预报,是科学治污、防污的关键基础。复合污染物浓度的预报尚存在很大不确定性,但常规观测难以满足其精准预报的需求。“目标观测”聚焦预报对观测的需求,是提高数值预报水平新的观测策略,已成功应用于高影响天气气候事件的理论研究与实际外场试验,显著提升了预报效果。与高影响天气气候事件预报的目标观测研究相比,重污染天气事件预报的目标观测研究起步较晚,尚未在外场试验中获得应用。本文回顾了高影响天气气候事件目标观测研究的进展,评述了目标观测策略在重污染天气事件研究中的应用,讨论了当前大气环境目标观测研究所面临的挑战以及未来研究的重点,最后展望了目标观测在提升大气复合污染物预报水平中的重要作用,以期为实现大气复合污染的精准治理提供科技支撑。

     

    Abstract: Atmospheric compound pollution events, primarily those involving PM2.5 and O3, represent one of the significant challenges faced by China in mitigating atmospheric environmental pollution. The accurate forecasting of atmospheric composite pollutants is essential for implementing effective pollution control and prevention measures. There is considerable uncertainty in forecasting compound pollutant concentrations. However, conventional observations are insufficient to meet the demands for the accurate forecasting of these pollutants. Targeted observations focus on the observational needs of forecasts and present a new strategy to enhance numerical forecasting skills. Currently, targeted observations have been successfully applied to theoretical research and practical field trials for high-impact weather and climate events, significantly improving forecasting skills. Compared to targeted observation research on high-impact weather and climate events, studies on targeted observations for air pollution events began relatively late, and this approach has not yet been implemented in field experiments. This paper reviews the research progress regarding the use of targeted observations for high-impact weather and climate event forecasts, evaluates the application of targeted observation strategies in studies of severe air pollution events, and discusses current challenges. Additionally, it highlights key areas for future research and explores the critical role of targeted observations in improving the forecasting accuracy of atmospheric composite pollutants, aiming at providing scientific support for the precise management of atmospheric composite pollution.

     

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