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基于多源立体探测和模糊逻辑算法的北京高山云海预报研究

Study of Beijing High Mountain Cloud Sea Forecasting Based on Multisource and Three-Dimensional Detection and Fuzzy Logic Algorithm

  • 摘要: 为满足旅游气象服务需求,促进首都旅游经济发展,基于多源立体探测和ERA5再分析资料以及聚类分析方法,开展北京高山云海时空分布、天气学分型、物理量垂直特征和生消机制研究,应用模糊逻辑算法建立云海预报模型并进行效果评估。结果表明:北京高山云海夏季最多,秋冬次之,春季最少,其发生的天气形势可分为前倾槽、高压脊和偏东风三种类型;“下湿上干”和逆温是云海的典型垂直配置,850 hPa以下层次相对湿度中位数均大于80%,以上高层均小于60%,梯度站点的最强逆温可达8°C;微波辐射计、风廓线雷达和梯度加密自动站的融合使用可精细化表征温湿风场的垂直分布及变化特征,反映云海形成、维持和消散的全过程,可用于云海的识别和短临预报;在增加无云海个例基础上,利用相对湿度作为预报因子,采用模糊逻辑算法建立的云海概率预报模型的准确率达94.5%,F1分数为0.81,预报效果较好,具有良好的应用推广前景。

     

    Abstract: This study explores the forecasting of Beijing high mountain sea cloud to meet the demand for meteorological services for tourism and promote the development of the capital tourism economy. Toward this end, the spatiotemporal distributions, synoptic classification, vertical characteristics of the physical quantities, and formation and dissipation mechanisms of the Beijing high mountain cloud sea were investigated by utilizing multisource and three-dimensional detection and ERA5 reanalysis data and by cluster analysis. A cloud sea forecasting model was established by using the fuzzy logic algorithm, and its effect was evaluated. The results show that the cloud sea phenomenon occurs most frequently in summer, followed by autumn and winter, and occurs the least frequently in spring; its synoptic patterns can be classified into forward-tilting troughs, high ridges, and easterly winds. The vertical configurations of the cloud sea typically exhibit an “upper-dry and lower-moist” feature and inversion. The median relative humidity is greater than 80% at the levels below 850 hPa and less than 60% at the levels above 850 hPa. The strongest inversion of the gradient stations can reach up to 8°C. By combining microwave radiometer data, wind profile radar data, and the intensive gradient automatic weather station data, we can refine the vertical distribution and variation characteristics of temperature, humidity, and wind fields. These refined distributions and characteristics reflect the whole process of formation, maintenance, and dissipation of the cloud sea, thereby aiding cloud sea identification and nowcasting. Based on the increasing number of no-cloud-sea cases, a cloud sea probability forecasting model was established by using the fuzzy logic algorithm with relative humidity as a forecasting factor. This model has an accuracy of 94.5% and an F1 score of 0.81, indicating good forecasting performance and prospects for practical application and promotion.

     

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