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近45年江淮地区不同等级降水气候特征及趋势分析

Climatic Characteristics and Trends of Precipitation for Different Grades in Jianghuai Region in Recent 45 Years

  • 摘要: 基于1979~2023年江淮地区气象观测和ERA-5再分析资料,分析了不同等级降水的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明,总降水及暴雨以下降水呈现南多北少的纬向分布,而大暴雨则集中在大别山和江西—安徽—浙江交界山区。降水与纬度呈显著负相关,降水与海拔则存在一定的正相关,其中大暴雨与海拔的相关系数达到0.30左右。近45年来,总雨日数和小雨日数显著减少,而总降水量及大雨以上等级降水量显著增加,说明强降水事件推动了降水量的整体增长。降水等级越高,其季节差异越明显——夏季为大雨及以上高发期,小雨则四季分布较均匀。日平均可降水量对各季节不同等级降水均具有较好区分度,大暴雨与日平均可降水量≥60 mm日数的年际变化高度一致,表明极端水汽条件是强降水的重要驱动。大暴雨偏多年份的西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西、强度偏强,同时低层辐合与高层辐散增强及西南风异常,促进江淮地区上升运动发展及水汽辐合,偏少年则反之。

     

    Abstract: Based on meteorological observation data from 1979 to 2023 in the Jianghuai region and ERA-5 reanalysis data, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations of different precipitation grades and their influencing factors. The results reveal that total precipitation and precipitation below the heavy rain level exhibit a latitudinal distribution, decreasing from south to north, whereas extreme heavy rain is concentrated in the Dabie Mountains and the mountainous areas at the junction of Jiangxi, Anhui, and Zhejiang provinces. Precipitation shows a significant negative correlation with latitude and a positive correlation with altitude, with the correlation coefficient between extreme heavy rain and altitude reaching approximately 0.30. Over the recent 45 years, the total number of rainy days and light rain days has significantly decreased, while total precipitation and precipitation above the heavy rain level have significantly increased. This indicates that the overall growth in precipitation is driven by heavy precipitation events. Seasonal variability in precipitation becomes increasingly pronounced with increasing intensity: heavy rain and above occur most frequently in summer, while light rain is relatively evenly distributed across all seasons. The precipitable water has a good discrimination for different grades of precipitation in different seasons. Interannual variation of precipitable water is highly consistent with precipitation trends, particularly the number of days mean daily with precipitable water ≥60 mm and extreme heavy rain, suggesting that extreme moisture conditions are a key driver of heavy precipitation. Furthermore, years with above-normal extreme heavy rain are associated with a westward shift and stronger intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high, accompanied by anomalous wind patterns favorable to upward motion and moisture transport over the Jianghuai region. In contrast, during years with below-normal extreme heavy rain, the opposite pattern prevails.

     

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