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2025年汛期中国气候趋势预测与展望

Climate Prediction and Outlook in China for the 2025 Flood Season

  • 摘要: 2025年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期(6~8月)全国气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合分析大气所各数值模式和统计模型的预测结果,在未来3~5个月热带中东太平洋从弱La Niña状态恢复至正常状态的背景下,预计2025年汛期(6~8月),我国可能出现南、北两条多雨带,主雨带位于华北—东北地区,次雨带位于华南地区。东北和华北的大部分地区、西北地区东部、黄河中下游、黄淮流域、华南沿海、西藏西南部、西南地区南部和西部降水正常略偏多,其中东北东部、华北东部以及河套西部地区降水偏多2~5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中长江中下游地区和新疆北部降水偏少2~5成,可能发生阶段性高温干旱。预计2025年夏季登陆台风数量正常略偏少。在预测2025年夏季ENSO强迫较弱、热带印度洋和热带北大西洋等关键海区海温偏暖并不显著的情况下,大气环流的季节内异常变化可能对中国夏季降水具有重要影响,特别是2025年盛夏期西太平洋副热带高压是否会出现持续性显著偏西偏强以及西太平洋暖池对流是否会明显偏强等仍存在较大不确定性,以上诸多因素的不同季节内变化特征可能导致长江中下游及以南地区旱涝形势的明显差异。然而,数值模式对于季节内尺度大气环流异常变化的跨季度预测难免存在一定偏差,后续将持续关注海洋和大气环流关键系统的实际演变趋势,开展滚动更新预测工作。

     

    Abstract: In March 2025, the Annual Symposium on China Climate Prediction for the summer season (June–August) was held at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. Under the background of a transition from a weak La Niña state to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation normal state over the next 3–5 months, climate anomalies in China for summer 2025 are predicted based on the results of various numerical and statistical models developed by the IAP. During the 2025 flood season (June–August), seasonally averaged precipitation slightly exceeding normal levels might occur in most parts of Northeast China and North China, the eastern part of Northwest China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Yellow River and Huai River basins, the coastal area of South China, the southwestern part of Tibet, and the southern and western parts of Southwest China. In particular, rainfall may be 20%–50% higher than normal in the eastern parts of Northeast China and North China, as well as the western part of the Hetao region, implying a high possibility of local flooding disasters. By contrast, other parts of China may experience drier-than-normal conditions in the coming summer, with a 20%–50% reduction in precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of Xinjiang. Furthermore, there may be fewer typhoons that make landfall this summer. Due to the uncertainty in the evolutionary trends of sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical oceans and the limited ability to predict intraseasonal variations of the western Pacific subtropical high, mid-high latitude atmospheric circulations, and western Pacific warm pool convection, these climate prediction results for the 2025 flood season are uncertain to some extent. In the future, we will conduct supplementary forecasts based on the observed variations of atmospheric and oceanic processes in the late spring and early summer of 2025.

     

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