Abstract:
In March 2025, the Annual Symposium on China Climate Prediction for the summer season (June–August) was held at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. Under the background of a transition from a weak La Niña state to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation normal state over the next 3–5 months, climate anomalies in China for summer 2025 are predicted based on the results of various numerical and statistical models developed by the IAP. During the 2025 flood season (June–August), seasonally averaged precipitation slightly exceeding normal levels might occur in most parts of Northeast China and North China, the eastern part of Northwest China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Yellow River and Huai River basins, the coastal area of South China, the southwestern part of Tibet, and the southern and western parts of Southwest China. In particular, rainfall may be 20%–50% higher than normal in the eastern parts of Northeast China and North China, as well as the western part of the Hetao region, implying a high possibility of local flooding disasters. By contrast, other parts of China may experience drier-than-normal conditions in the coming summer, with a 20%–50% reduction in precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of Xinjiang. Furthermore, there may be fewer typhoons that make landfall this summer. Due to the uncertainty in the evolutionary trends of sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical oceans and the limited ability to predict intraseasonal variations of the western Pacific subtropical high, mid-high latitude atmospheric circulations, and western Pacific warm pool convection, these climate prediction results for the 2025 flood season are uncertain to some extent. In the future, we will conduct supplementary forecasts based on the observed variations of atmospheric and oceanic processes in the late spring and early summer of 2025.