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2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析

龚振淞 陈丽娟

龚振淞, 陈丽娟. 2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(3): 342-352. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11063
引用本文: 龚振淞, 陈丽娟. 2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(3): 342-352. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11063
GONG Zhensong, CHEN Lijuan. Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2010[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(3): 342-352. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11063
Citation: GONG Zhensong, CHEN Lijuan. Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2010[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(3): 342-352. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11063

2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11063
基金项目: 科技部科技支撑项目2009BAC51B05;公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200906015;中国气象局气候预测创新团队项目

Analysis of Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2010

  • 摘要: 利用中国气象局热带气旋(TC)资料、NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料和美国NOAA向外长波辐射(OLR)等资料,分析了2010年西北太平洋(WNP)及南海(SCS)热带气旋活动异常的可能成因,讨论了同期大气环流配置和海温外强迫对TC生成和登陆的动力和热力条件的影响。结果表明,2010年生成TC频数明显偏少,生成源地显著偏西,而登陆TC频数与常年持平。导致7~10月TC频数明显偏少的大尺度环境场特征为:副热带高压较常年异常偏强、西伸脊点偏西,季风槽位置异常偏西,弱垂直风切变带位置也较常年偏西且范围偏小,南亚高压异常偏强,贝加尔湖附近对流层低高层均为反气旋距平环流,这些关键环流因子的特征和配置都不利于TC在WNP的东部生成。影响TC活动的外强迫场特征为:2010年热带太平洋经历了El Niño事件于春末夏初消亡、La Niña事件于7月形成的转换;7~10月,WNP海表温度维持正距平,140�E以东为负距平且对流活动受到抑制;暖池次表层海温异常偏暖,对应上空850 hPa为东风距平,有利于季风槽偏西和TC在WNP的西北侧海域生成。WNP海表温度和暖池次表层海温的特征是2010年TC生成频数偏少、生成源地异常偏西的重要外强迫信号。有利于7~10月热带气旋西行和登陆的500 hPa风场特征为:北太平洋为反气旋环流距平,其南侧为东风异常,该东风异常南缘可到25�N,并向西扩展至中国大陆地区;南海和西北太平洋地区15�N以南的低纬也为东风异常;在这样的风场分布型下,TC容易受偏东气流引导西行并登陆我国沿海地区。这是2010年生成TC偏少但登陆TC并不少的重要环流条件。
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  • 收稿日期:  2011-04-26
  • 修回日期:  2013-01-23

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