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中高纬度印度洋海温与西北太平洋夏季台风生成数的相关性

吴胜安 周广庆 穆松宁

吴胜安, 周广庆, 穆松宁. 中高纬度印度洋海温与西北太平洋夏季台风生成数的相关性[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(2): 243-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11073
引用本文: 吴胜安, 周广庆, 穆松宁. 中高纬度印度洋海温与西北太平洋夏季台风生成数的相关性[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(2): 243-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11073
WU Sheng’an, ZHOU Guangqing, MU Songning. Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature of Middle-High Latitude Indian Ocean and Summer Typhoon Frequencies over the Western North Pacific[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(2): 243-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11073
Citation: WU Sheng’an, ZHOU Guangqing, MU Songning. Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature of Middle-High Latitude Indian Ocean and Summer Typhoon Frequencies over the Western North Pacific[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(2): 243-250. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11073

中高纬度印度洋海温与西北太平洋夏季台风生成数的相关性

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11073
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2010CB951901;国家自然科学基金项目40821092;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110203

Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature of Middle-High Latitude Indian Ocean and Summer Typhoon Frequencies over the Western North Pacific

  • 摘要: 从独立性、显著性和滞后性角度分析西北太平洋夏季台风生成数(WNPTYF)与前期中高纬度印度洋海表温度(SST)的关系, 结果表明:前期中高纬度印度洋SST与WNPTYF相关显著, 且独立于热带东太平洋SST(或ENSO)对WNPTYF影响;中高纬度印度洋SST年际变化对WNPTYF年际变化的指示能力相当或超过热 带东太平洋, 综合两者的影响预测夏季西北太平洋台风生成数的变化有非常重要的现实意义。进一步的分析表明, 中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF影响有明显的滞后性, 前期相关显著而同期相关不显著。这种滞后性意味着其前期中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF的影响并不是通过SST的持续性, 而很可能是通过南半球大气活动的持续性及异常信号在大气中的传播而影响到夏季的环流, 最终影响WNPTYF异常。这种影响机制有待进一步研究。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2011-05-17
  • 修回日期:  2012-11-27

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