风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响

孙秀宝; 任国玉; 任芝花; 沈志超

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133

风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133

1.
南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044;中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京100081
2.
中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京100081
3.
国家气象信息中心, 北京100081

基金项目: 国家科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201206012

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2011-08-16
- 修回日期: 2012-12-28

Effects of Wind-Induced Errors on Winter Snowfall and Its Trends

1.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
3.
National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 利用71个气象站1960～2009年共50年的冬季逐日降水、风速和天气现象资料, 以及3个站降水对比观测试验数据, 对东北地区降雪测量记录的风场变形误差进行了评价和订正, 并在此基础上分析了风场变形误差对研究区降雪量变化趋势估算结果的影响。结果如下:1)东北地区冬季降雪量台站观测记录普遍被低估, 全区观测的冬季平均降雪量为15.1 mm, 而风场变形误差订正后冬季平均降雪量为22.5 mm。各站绝对误差介于1.1～19.4 mm, 平均绝对误差为7.5 mm, 各站相对误差介于11.8%～50.8%, 平均相对误差为34.1%。2)主要由于受气象台站观测环境改变导致的风速减弱现象影响, 东北地区大部分台站雨量计对降雪的捕获率有所增加, 冬季降水观测中的风场变形误差减小, 引起实测的降雪量变化趋势估算值被高估。风场变形误差订正前, 东北地区近50年的冬季降雪量变化趋势为0.4 mm·(10 a)^-1, 而风场变形误差订正后, 冬季降雪量变化趋势为0.1 mm·(10 a)^-1。3)东北南部地区台站受风场变形误差影响尤其明显, 冬季实测的降雪量变化趋势偏高更大, 订正后和订正前趋势差值为-1 mm·(10 a)^-1, 即订正前冬季降雪量变化趋势被高估程度达到了64.3%。
- 降雪 /
- 降水量 /
- 风速 /
- 误差 /
- 气候变化 /
- 中国东北
Abstract: Datasets of daily precipitation, wind speed, and weather phenomena of 71 stations during 1960-2009 and experimental observations of precipitation from three stations are used to estimate wind-induced errors in winter snowfall records over northeastern China, and to analyze the effects of wind-induced under-catch on long-term winter snowfall trends. The results show that winter snowfall is generally undervalued. Although the region’s average annual snowfall was measured at 15.1 mm, the corrected snowfall was 22.5 mm, which indicates an average error of 7.5 mm, or relative error of approximately 34.1%. In recent years, the gauge catch rate has increased due to the weakening of surface wind speed resulting from urbanization and micro-environmental change surrounding the stations, which have led to an overestimate of winter snowfall trends in the study region. This analysis shows a 50-year linear trend of winter snowfall of 0.4 mm/10 a when original precipitation data are included and a long-term trend of winter snowfall at 0.1 mm/10 a when adjusted data are used. The effect of wind-induced error on the estimates of winter snowfall trends is particularly significant in the southern part of the study region, with an overestimate for long-term trends reaching ?1 mm/10 a, or approximately 64.3% in terms of relative bias.
- Snowfall /
- Precipitation /
- Wind speed /
- Error /
- Climate change /
- Northeast China

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