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风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响

孙秀宝 任国玉 任芝花 沈志超

孙秀宝, 任国玉, 任芝花, 沈志超. 风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(2): 178-186. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133
引用本文: 孙秀宝, 任国玉, 任芝花, 沈志超. 风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(2): 178-186. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133
SUN Xiubao, REN Guoyu, REN Zhihua, SHEN Zhichao. Effects of Wind-Induced Errors on Winter Snowfall and Its Trends[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(2): 178-186. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133
Citation: SUN Xiubao, REN Guoyu, REN Zhihua, SHEN Zhichao. Effects of Wind-Induced Errors on Winter Snowfall and Its Trends[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(2): 178-186. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133

风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11133
基金项目: 国家科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201206012

Effects of Wind-Induced Errors on Winter Snowfall and Its Trends

  • 摘要: 利用71个气象站1960~2009年共50年的冬季逐日降水、风速和天气现象资料, 以及3个站降水对比观测试验数据, 对东北地区降雪测量记录的风场变形误差进行了评价和订正, 并在此基础上分析了风场变形误差对研究区降雪量变化趋势估算结果的影响。结果如下:1)东北地区冬季降雪量台站观测记录普遍被低估, 全区观测的冬季平均降雪量为15.1 mm, 而风场变形误差订正后冬季平均降雪量为22.5 mm。各站绝对误差介于1.1~19.4 mm, 平均绝对误差为7.5 mm, 各站相对误差介于11.8%~50.8%, 平均相对误差为34.1%。2)主要由于受气象台站观测环境改变导致的风速减弱现象影响, 东北地区大部分台站雨量计对降雪的捕获率有所增加, 冬季降水观测中的风场变形误差减小, 引起实测的降雪量变化趋势估算值被高估。风场变形误差订正前, 东北地区近50年的冬季降雪量变化趋势为0.4 mm·(10 a)-1, 而风场变形误差订正后, 冬季降雪量变化趋势为0.1 mm·(10 a)-1。3)东北南部地区台站受风场变形误差影响尤其明显, 冬季实测的降雪量变化趋势偏高更大, 订正后和订正前趋势差值为-1 mm·(10 a)-1, 即订正前冬季降雪量变化趋势被高估程度达到了64.3%。
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  • 收稿日期:  2011-08-16
  • 修回日期:  2012-12-28

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