草原生态系统模式中参数不确定性导致的模拟结果不确定性研究

谢东东; 孙国栋; 邵爱梅; 穆穆

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11179

草原生态系统模式中参数不确定性导致的模拟结果不确定性研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11179

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
3.
兰州大学大气科学学院半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000
4.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;中国科学院海洋研究所海洋环流与波动重点实验室, 青岛 266071

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目40905050、40875063

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2011-11-21
- 修回日期: 2013-02-23

A Study of Simulation Uncertainties Caused by Parameter Uncertainties in a Grassland Ecosystem Model

1.
Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
4.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071

摘要

摘要: 基于五变量草原生态系统理论模式,应用与参数有关的条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP-P)方法,探讨了由参数不确定性导致的草原生态系统模式模拟结果的不确定性问题。参数的不确定性可能来源于观测和(或)对物理过程描述等的不确定性。选取了五变量草原生态系统模式中具有物理意义的32个模式参数进行数值试验。试验结果表明,对所考察的32个模式参数,在一定的不确定性和给定的优化时刻范围内,单独优化每个参数所得CNOP-Ps的联合模态与同时优化32个参数所得CNOP-P的模态并不相同。比较了上述两类参数误差以及随机参数误差对草原生态系统模拟的差异。随机参数误差与上述优化方法所得参数误差的不确定性范围大小相同。数值结果表明,同时优化32个参数所得CNOP-P类型参数误差使得草原生态系统模拟的不确定性程度最大。这种影响表现在使得草原生态系统转变为沙漠生态系统,或者使得草原生态系统转变为具有更多生草量的草原生态系统。上述数值结果不依赖于优化时间和参数不确定性程度的大小。这些数值结果建议我们应当考虑多参数的非线性相互作用来研究草原生态系统模式模拟的不确定性问题,并且揭示出CNOP-P方法是讨论上述问题的一个有用的工具。
- 参数不确定性 /
- 草原生态系统 /
- 模拟结果不确定性 /
- 条件非线性最优扰动
Abstract: The uncertainties in grassland ecosystem simulations caused by uncertainties in the parameters were studied using a theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model and a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP-P) method. Uncertainties in the parameters may originate in uncertainties in the observations and/or descriptions of the physical processes associated with the parameter, amongst other things. 32 model parameters that have physical meanings in the five-variable grassland ecosystem model were selected for use in numerical experiments. The results showed that when these parameters had the same degree of uncertainty, and the same optimization time, the combination of CNOP-Ps optimized for each parameter was different from the CNOP-P optimized for all 32 model parameters. The authors compared the grassland ecosystem simulations with the two types of parameter errors described above and with random parameter errors with the same degree of uncertainty as the optimized parameter errors. It was concluded that the CNOP-P for the 32 model parameters optimized at the same time led to the maximum uncertainty in the grassland ecosystem simulation, which was that the grassland ecosystem was either transformed into a desert ecosystem or another grassland ecosystem with more biomass. These results were independent of the size of the parameter uncertainties and the optimization time, and they show that nonlinear interactions between several parameters in the model are important to the uncertainties in the grassland ecosystem simulation. The results also imply that the CNOP-P method is a useful tool for assessing uncertainties in the grassland ecosystem simulation.
- Parameter uncertainty /
- Grassland ecosystem /
- Simulation uncertainty /
- Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

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