我国南方输电线路覆冰极值序列重建试验

江志红; 杭月荷; 刘冬; 吴息; 熊海星

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.12011

我国南方输电线路覆冰极值序列重建试验

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.12011

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044
2.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044;中国民用航空华东地区空中交通管理局气象中心, 上海 201103
3.
中国电力工程顾问集团西南电力设计院, 成都 610000

基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划课题2008BAK50B02-04;西南电力设计院委托项目“输电线路覆冰数学模型研究”

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2012-01-15
- 修回日期: 2013-01-26

Reconstruction of an Extreme Wire Icing Series in Southern China

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Aviation Meteorological Center of East China Air Traffic Management Bureau, Shanghai 201103
3.
Southwest Electric Power Design Institute of China Power Engineering Consulting Group, Chengdu 610000

摘要

摘要: 基于我国南方有覆冰数据记录的气象站冰厚年极值及同期气象要素观测资料,统计分析多种气象因子对覆冰年极值形成条件频次分布的影响,归纳出了最易于出现覆冰年极值的温度、风速和湿度条件。在此基础上,通过对西南地区威宁、金佛山、峨眉山和三穗4站覆冰年极值与其相应气象变量的进一步分析,建立了覆冰极值序列的回归模型。根据现有气象站电线结冰资料及其对应时段的常规气象要素资料,对气象站电线结冰年极值序列进行重建试验,试验结果表明不同气候背景下覆冰极值序列的回归模型有显著差异。独立样本的交叉检验结果显示,威宁站年极值序列的回归模型效果较理想,重建序列能够较好地模拟覆冰的极值序列。
- 覆冰 /
- 极值 /
- 重建
Abstract: The authors analyzed various factors that cause extreme ice covering (EIC) using statistical methods on extreme ice thickness records and contemporaneous observational meteorological data from weather stations in southern China, and summarized how certain meteorological conditions, such as temperature, wind speed, and humidity, affect the EIC value. Further study of the EIC values and meteorological parameters at stations of Weining, Jinfoshan, Emeishan, and Sansui, allowed us to establish a regression model for the EIC data series. Based on the extreme ice thickness records and contemporaneous observational meteorological data from weather stations, the wire EIC value sequences were reconstructed, and it showed that regression models of wire EIC value sequences under different climate background conditions have significant differences. According to cross-test results using independent samples, the reconstructed regression model sequence for the Weining station matched the observational data, and the model simulated the EIC sequence well.
- Wire icing /
- Extreme value /
- Reconstruction

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参考文献(10)

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