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基于CMIP5资料的云南及周边地区未来50年气候预估

周秀华 肖子牛

周秀华, 肖子牛. 基于CMIP5资料的云南及周边地区未来50年气候预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2014, 19(5): 601-613. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080
引用本文: 周秀华, 肖子牛. 基于CMIP5资料的云南及周边地区未来50年气候预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2014, 19(5): 601-613. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080
ZHOU Xiuhua, XIAO Ziniu. Climate Projection over Yunnan Province and the Surrounding Regions Based on CMIP5 Data[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2014, 19(5): 601-613. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080
Citation: ZHOU Xiuhua, XIAO Ziniu. Climate Projection over Yunnan Province and the Surrounding Regions Based on CMIP5 Data[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2014, 19(5): 601-613. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080

基于CMIP5资料的云南及周边地区未来50年气候预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13080
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41175051,国家自然科学基金项目U1133603

Climate Projection over Yunnan Province and the Surrounding Regions Based on CMIP5 Data

  • 摘要: 利用CRU(Climatic Research Unit)高分辨率观测数据及云南省124站资料,检验了参与IPCC AR5(政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次评估报告)的7个全球海气耦合模式(Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5,CMIP5)及模式集合平均对云南及周边地区气温和降水的模拟性能,同时进行该区域不同温室气体排放量情景下2006~2055年的气候预估。结果表明:全球海气耦合模式对该区域气温和降水气候场空间分布、气温的线性趋势和春、夏季降水的年代际振荡特征具有一定的模拟能力,且模式集合能力优于单一模式,气温模拟优于降水模拟,但春、夏季的降水好于其他季节,使得全年的总降水好于秋、冬两季。对未来情景预估表明,研究区域未来50年气温呈现显著的线性上升趋势,降水量保持年代际振荡特征并有所增加,2020年之前我国云南及其南部区域将经历相对的干旱时期。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-05-08
  • 修回日期:  2013-07-22

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