江淮地区极端降水特征及其变化趋势的研究

王静; 余锦华; 何俊琦

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13222

江淮地区极端降水特征及其变化趋势的研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13222

南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院, 南京210044

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2012CB955903,江苏省高校自然科学研究重大项目13KJA170002,江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-12-13

Study on Characteristics and Change Trend of Extreme Rainfall in the Jianghuai Region

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

摘要

摘要: 利用1961～2011年江淮地区5～9月无缺测的71站逐日降水资料,做基于POT(Peaks-Over-Threshold)的广义Pareto 分布(GPD),研究江淮地区极端降水的分布特征及其变化趋势.结果表明:(1)皖赣交界处阈值最大,西北和东南部较小,且江淮大部分地区阈值的线性趋势系数为正,其中湖北东部和江西北部的站点,趋势达0.8 mm (10 a)^-1以上,并通过了显著性水平0.01的MK(Mann-Kendall)检验.(2)江淮地区中东部多存在连续性极端降水,因此文中采用基于极值指数的自动分串技术获得近似独立的极值样本.(3)尺度参数大值区位于江淮南部,西北、东南以及淮河以北较小,且线性趋势系数在大部分地区均表现为正值,表明出现降水极大值的概率增加.(4)皖赣鄂交界处是极端降水发生概率大值区,而西北、东南及安徽中部地区较小,且极端降水在大部分地区有增加的趋势,特别是在大别山附近及河南东部,2年和20年重现水平的趋势分别达6 mm (10 a)^-1和20 mm (10 a)^-1以上.
- 广义Pareto分布 /
- 超门限峰值POT(Peaks-Over-Threshold) /
- 极端降水
Abstract: The daily rainfall data from May to September of 71 stations in the Jianghuai region from 1961 to 2011 with no missing data were used to introduce the GPD (Generalized Pareto Distribution) based on the POT (Peaks- Over-Threshold) method in a study of the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall characteristics and trends. The results indicate that the maximum thresholds are at the border of Anhui and Jiangxi, whereas smaller thresholds are in northwest and southeast. The trends of the thresholds are positive in most places. At the stations in eastern Hubei and northern Jiangxi, the trends are more than 0.8 mm (10 a)^-1 and pass the 0.01 significance level of the Mann-Kendall test. In the mid-east region, extreme rainfall is nearly continuous; therefore, an automatic declustering scheme is used to select the independent extreme events exceeding the threshold. The largest values of scale parameter are in the south, whereas in areas northwest, southwest, and north of the Huaihe River, the values are smaller. In most parts of the Jianghuai region, the trends of scale parameter are positive, which indicates a greater occurrence probability of maximum rainfall. The border region of Anhui, Jiangxi, and Hubei has the highest probability of extreme rainfall, whereas the probabilities are lower in the northwest, southeast, and middle parts of Anhui. The trends of extreme rainfall are positive in most places, particularly in the Dabie mountains nearby and in eastern Henan, where the trends of 2-a and 20-a return levels are more than 6 mm (10 a)^-1 and 20 mm (10 a)^-1, respectively.
- Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) /
- Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) /
- Extreme rainfall

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