西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动季节变化的差异及可能原因

郝赛; 毛江玉

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.14063

西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动季节变化的差异及可能原因

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.14063

郝赛¹,
毛江玉^2,

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2011CB403505、2014CB953902,国家自然科学基金项目41175059、41375087

计量
- 文章访问数: 2056
- HTML全文浏览量: 34
- PDF下载量: 2845
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-03-19

Differences of the Seasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activities over the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific and the Possible Causes

HAO Sai¹,
MAO Jiangyu^2
,

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

摘要

摘要: 利用1945～2011年美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)西北太平洋热带气旋资料,研究了南海(5°N～25°N,110°E～120°E)与西北太平洋(5°N～25°N,120°E～180°)热带气旋生成位置、生成频数、强度和持续时间的季节变化差异及其成因。从热带气旋路径穿越经度带频数的角度,探讨了ENSO对气旋活动年际变化的影响。结果表明,南海热带气旋活动显著地受季风调控。在南海冬季风作用下,1～4月热带气旋生成于10°N以南且频数较少、强度较弱,这主要是低层气旋式相对涡度和弱东风切变区偏南造成的。相反,受夏季风影响,6～9月是热带气旋生成最多、最频繁的季节,大都生成于南海北部17°N附近。在5月(10月)的季节转换期,生成位置大幅度北进(南撤)且生成频数显著增加(减少),取决于风速垂直切变及中层的相对湿度的急剧转变。11、12月两海域热带气旋生成于10°N以南主要归因于其上空中层大气相对湿度较北部偏大。在西北太平洋,热带气旋生成的季节变化没有南海显著,只在7月有一次明显的变化,7～10月是热带气旋活动的“盛期”。在强度上,西北太平洋大部分区域全年均为弱东风切变,因此热带气旋以台风为主且持续时间长;但南海多为热带风暴。ENSO事件使得不同季节热带气旋生成区域和气旋路径地理位置发生显著变化。在El Niño事件期间,穿越南海所在经度带路径频数为负距平,而西北太平洋经度带为正距平;在La Niña事件期间,情况相反。
- 西北太平洋 /
- 南海 /
- 热带气旋活动 /
- 季节变化 /
- ENSO
Abstract: The characteristics and differences of seasonal changes of the tropical cyclone (TC) activities in terms of genesis location, genesis frequency, intensity, and duration are analyzed over the South China Sea (SCS) (5°N-25°N, 110°E-120°E) and the western North Pacific (WNP) (5°N-25°N, 120°E-180°) using the TC datasets for the period 1945-2011 from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Further examined are the impacts of ENSO events on the interannual variability of TC activities over the two areas from the perspective of TC longitude crossings. The results show that the TC genesis in the SCS is modulated significantly by the SCS monsoon, with a small number of weak TCs forming only south of 10°N during months of January to April when the SCS winter monsoon prevails, which results from favorable dynamical conditions confined to lower latitudes in terms of low-level cyclonic vorticity and weak vertical wind shear. In contrast, the period from June to September is the SCS TC season during which TCs generate most frequently under the impact of the SCS summer monsoon season, with majority of cyclogenesis forming around 17°N. Abrupt northward (southward) shift of TC genesis position accompanied by the apparent increase (decrease) in cyclogenesis frequency takes place in the seasonal transition of May (October), depending on the onset (retreat) of the SCS summer monsoon in relation to drastic changes of the weak vertical wind shear and mid-layer relative humidity higher than 40% in the SCS. With the higher relative humidity concentrating over southern SCS in the mid-layer, the TC genesis positions again return back south of 10°N during November-December. However, the TC genesis in the WNP exhibits a gradually seasonal variation with an evident change only appearing in July. Note that the period July-October is the dominant typhoon season in the WNP. Because weaker vertical easterly wind shear is present over the NWP in almost all months of the year, most TCs generated in this region can reach a stronger intensity and develop into typhoons. But over the SCS, the TC intensity is weaker than that over the NWP, with most TCs evolving into only tropical storms. ENSO events exert a significant impact on changes in regions favorable for TC genesis during different seasons and consequently on geographical variations in TC tracks. During an El Niño event for both developing phase and decaying phase, the departure from climatology of monthly TC longitude crossings is negative anomaly in the SCS and positive anomaly in the WNP. Opposite situation occurs during a La Niña event.
- Western North Pacific /
- South China Sea /
- Tropical cyclone /
- Seasonal variation /
- ENSO

HTML全文

参考文献(59)

[1]	白莉娜, 王元. 2009. 南海源地热带气旋生成和登陆频数的气候变异 [J]. 南京大学学报 (自然科学版), 45 (6): 757-768. Bai Lina, Wang Yuan. 2009. Climatic variation of the occurring and landing frequencies of tropical cyclones initiated from South China Sea [J]. Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Sciences) (in Chinese), 45 (6): 757-768.
[2]	Chan J C L. 2000. Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events [J]. J. Climate, 13 (16): 2960-2972.
[3]	Chan J C L, Liu K S. 2004. Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective [J]. J. Climate, 17 (23): 4590-4602.
[4]	陈光华, 黄荣辉. 2006. 西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究 [J]. 地球科学进展, 21 (6): 610-616. Chen Guanghua, Huang Ronghui. 2006. Research on climatological problems of tropical cyclone and typhoon activity in western North Pacific [J]. Advances in Earth Science (in Chinese), 21 (6): 610-616.
[5]	Chen G H, Tam C Y. 2010. Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37 (1): L01803.
[6]	陈联寿, 丁一汇. 1979. 西太平洋台风概论 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 64-145. Chen Lianshou, Ding Yihui. 1979. An Introduction to Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 64-145.
[7]	陈联寿, 孟智勇. 2001. 我国热带气旋研究十年进展 [J]. 大气科学, 25 (3): 420-432. Chen Lianshou, Meng Zhiyong. 2001. An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 25 (3): 420-432.
[8]	陈世荣. 1990. 西北太平洋的热带风暴源地 [J]. 气象, 16 (2): 23-26. Chen Shirong. 1990. Source regions of tropical storms over northwest Pacific Ocean [J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 16 (2): 23-26.
[9]	丁一汇. 2005. 高等天气学 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 194-267. Ding Yihui. 2005. Advanced Synoptic Meteorology (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 194-267.
[10]	Emanuel K A. 2003. Tropical cyclones [J]. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 31: 75-104.
[11]	范可. 2007a. 北太平洋海冰,一个西北太平洋台风生成频次的预测因子？[J]. 中国科学 (D辑:地球科学), 37 (6): 851-856. Fan Ke. 2007a. North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the western North Pacific typhoon frequency? [J]. Science China (Ser. D: Earth Sciences) (in Chinese), 37 (6): 851-856.
[12]	范可. 2007b. 西北太平洋台风生成频次的新预测因子和新预测模型 [J]. 中国科学 (D辑:地球科学), 37 (9): 1260-1266. Fan Ke. 2007b. New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western Pacific [J]. Science China (Ser. D: Earth Sciences) (in Chinese), 37 (9): 1260-1266.
[13]	Fan K, Wang H J. 2009. A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific [J]. Wea. Forecasting, 24 (4): 974-986.
[14]	冯涛, 黄荣辉, 陈光华, 等. 2013. 近年来关于西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展 [J]. 大气科学, 37 (2): 364-382. Feng Tao, Huang Ronghui, Chen Guanghua, et al. 2013. Progress in recent climatological research on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 37 (2): 364-382.
[15]	Goldenberg S B, Landsea C W, Mestas-Nunez A M, et al. 2001. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications [J]. Science, 293 (5529): 474-479.
[16]	Goni G J, Trinanes J A. 2003. Ocean thermal structure monitoring could aid in the intensity forecast of tropical cyclones [J]. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 84 (51): 573-578.
[17]	Gray W M. 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96 (10): 669-670.
[18]	Hall T M, Jewson S. 2007. Statistical modelling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks [J]. Tellus: Ser. A, 59 (4): 486-498.
[19]	Harr P A, Elsberry R L. 1995. Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical western North Pacific. Part I: Spatial patterns and tropical cyclone characteristics [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123 (5): 1225-1246.
[20]	蒋迪, 黄菲, 郝光华, 等. 2012. 南海土台风生成及发展过程海气热通量交换特征 [J]. 热带气象学报, 28 (6): 888-896. Jiang Di, Huang Fei, Hao Guanghua, et al. 2012. The characteristics of air-sea heat flux exchange during the generation and development of the local typhoon over the South China Sea [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 28 (6): 888-896.
[21]	Kuleshov Y, Qi L, Fawcett R. 2008. On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 (14): L14S08.
[22]	Lander M A. 1994. An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122 (4): 636-651.
[23]	李春晖, 刘春霞, 程正泉. 2007. 近50年南海热带气旋时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子 [J]. 热带气象学报, 23 (4): 341-347. Li Chunhui, Liu Chunxia, Cheng Zhengquan. 2007. The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies over the South China Sea and its affecting oceanic factors in the past 50yrs [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 23 (4): 341-347.
[24]	Li T, Wang B. 2005. A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: Synoptic-to-interannual variabilities [J]. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (TAO), 16: 285-314.
[25]	李雪, 任福民, 杨修群, 等. 2010. 南海和西北太平洋热带气旋活动的区域性差异分析 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 15 (4): 504-510. Li Xue, Ren Fumin, Yang Xiuqun, et al. 2010. A study of the regional differences of the tropical cyclone activities over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 15 (4): 504-510.
[26]	Lin I I, Wu C C, Pun I F, et al. 2008. Upper ocean thermal structure and the western North Pacific category-5 typhoons. Part I: Ocean features and category-5 typhoon's intensification [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136 (9): 3288- 3306.
[27]	Lin I I, Pun I F, Wu C C. 2009. Upper ocean thermal structure and the western North Pacific category-5 typhoons. Part II: Dependence on translation speed [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137 (11): 3744-3757.
[28]	Maloney E D, Hartmann D L. 2001. The Madden-Julian oscillation, barotropic dynamics, and north Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Part I: Observations [J]. J. Atmos. Sci., 58 (17): 2545-2558.
[29]	Mao J Y, Chan J C L. 2005. Intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon [J]. J. Climate, 18 (13): 2388-2402.
[30]	Mao J Y, Wu G X. 2010. Intraseasonal modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific: A case study [J]. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 100 (3-4): 397-411.
[31]	Nolan D S, McGauley M G. 2012. Tropical cyclogenesis in wind shear: Climatological relationships and physical processes [M]// Oouchi K, Fudeyasu H. Cyclones: Formation, Triggers, and Control. Happauge, New York, NY, USA: Nova Science Publishers.
[32]	Onogi K, Tsutsui J, Koide H, et al. 2007. The JRA-25 reanalysis [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85 (3): 369-432.
[33]	Reynolds R W, Rayner N A, Smith T M, et al. 2002. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate [J]. J. Climate, 15(13): 1609-1625.
[34]	Ritchie E A, Holland G J. 1999. Large-scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127 (9): 2027-2043.
[35]	Wang L. 2008. Study of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea [D]. Ph. D. dissertation, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 29-35.
[36]	Wang B. 1990. On the asymmetry of baroclinic instability between easterly and westerly shear [J]. Tellus A, 42 (4): 463-468.
[37]	Wang B, Chan J C L. 2002. How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific [J]. J. Climate, 15 (13): 1643-1658.
[38]	王东生, 屈雅. 2007. 西北太平洋和南海热带气旋的气候特征分析 [J]. 气象, 33 (7): 67-74. Wang Dongsheng, Qu Ya. 2007. Climatic characteristics of tropical cyclones over northwestern Pacific and South China Sea [J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 33 (7): 67-74.
[39]	Wang G H, Su J L, Ding Y H, et al. 2007. Tropical cyclone genesis over the South China Sea [J]. J. Mar. Syst., 68 (3-4): 318-326.
[40]	王会军, 范可. 2006. 西北太平洋台风生成频次与南极涛动的关系 [J]. 科学通报, 51 (24): 2910-2914. Wang Huijun, Fan Ke. 2006. Relationship between the Antarctic oscillation and the western North Pacific typhoon frequency [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin (in Chinese), 51 (24): 2910-2914.
[41]	王会军, 郎咸梅, 范可, 等. 2006. 关于2006年西太平洋台风活动频次的气候预测试验 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 11 (2): 133-137. Wang Huijun, Lang Xianmei, Fan Ke, et al. 2006. Real-time climate prediction experiment for the typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific for 2006 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 11 (2): 133-137.
[42]	王会军, 范可, 孙建奇, 等. 2007a. 关于西太平洋台风气候变异和预测的若干研究进展 [J]. 大气科学, 31 (6): 1076-1081. Wang Huijun, Fan Ke, Sun Jianqi, et al. 2007a. Some advances in the researches of the western North Pacific typhoon climate variability and prediction [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 31 (6): 1076-1081.
[43]	王会军, 孙建奇, 范可. 2007b. 北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究 [J]. 中国科学 (D辑:地球科学), 37 (7): 966-973. Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, Fan Ke. 2007b. Relationship between the North Pacific oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies [J]. Science China (Ser. D: Earth Sciences) (in Chinese), 37 (7): 966-973.
[44]	Wang L, Pan X M. 2012. Diagnosis of seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea using a genesis potential index [J]. Journal of Ocean University of China, 11 (3): 267-278.
[45]	Wang Y, Wu C C. 2004. Current understanding of tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes — A review [J]. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 87 (4): 257-278.
[46]	Watterson I G, Evans J L, Ryan B F. 1995. Seasonal and interannual variability of tropical cyclogenesis: Diagnostics from large-scale fields [J]. J. Climate, 8 (12): 3052-3066.
[47]	吴迪生, 赵雪, 冯伟忠, 等. 2005. 南海灾害性土台风统计分析 [J]. 热带气象学报, 21 (3): 309-314. Wu Disheng, Zhao Xue, Feng Weizhong, et al. 2005. The statistical analyse to the local harmful typhoon of South China Sea [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 21 (3): 309-314.
[48]	Wu L G, Wang B, Braun S A. 2005. Impacts of air-sea interaction on tropical cyclone track and intensity [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133(11): 3299-3314.
[49]	Wu R, Wang B. 2001. Multi-stage onset of the summer monsoon over the western North Pacific [J]. Climate Dyn., 17 (4): 277-289.
[50]	杨彩虹, 薛存金, 季民. 2012. 近30年西北太平洋热带气旋时空特征分析 [J]. 地球信息科学学报, 14 (5): 611-617. Yang Caihong, Xue Cunjin, Ji Min. 2012. Spatio-temporal variability of typhoon in the recent 30 years in the Northwest Pacific [J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science (in Chinese), 14 (5): 611-617.
[51]	叶婷婷. 2013. 南海热带气旋的若干气候特征分析 [D]. 南京大学硕士学位论文, 50pp. Ye Tingting. 2013. A study to several climatological characteristic of tropical cyclones from South China Sea [D]. M. S. thesis (in Chinese), Nanjing University, 50pp.
[52]	Yuan J, Wang D, Liu C, et al. 2007. The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea [J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 26 (4): 29-43.
[53]	Yumoto M, Matsuura T. 2001. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 79 (1): 23-35.
[54]	Zehr R M. 1992. Tropical cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific [R]. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS, 181.
[55]	张秋庆, 黄荣辉. 1993. ENSO事件发展的时空特征 [J]. 大气科学, 17 (4): 395-402. Zhang Qiuqing, Huang Ronghui. 1993. Temporal and spatial features in ENSO evolution [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 17 (4): 395-402.
[56]	郑文荣, 李江南, 蔡建春, 等. 2009. 西北太平洋超强台风时空分布特征及其成因 [J]. 海洋预报, 26 (4): 19-24. Zheng Wenrong, Li Jiangnan, Cai Jianchun, et al. 2009. Spatio-temporal characteristics of super typhoons in the western North Pacific and related causes [J]. Marine Forecasts (in Chinese), 26 (4): 19-24.
[57]	Zhou B T, Cui X. 2008. Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 113 (16): D16107, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009156.
[58]	Zhou B T, Cui X. 2014. Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific [J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 57 (9): 2148-2155, doi: 10.1007/s11430-014-4862-z.
[59]	祝丽娟, 王亚非, 尹志聪. 2012. 热带MJO和ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋影响研究综述 [J]. 气象科技, 40 (1): 65-73. Zhu Lijuan, Wang Yafei, Yin Zhicong. 2012. Review of modulation impacts of Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO on tropical cyclone activities over western North Pacific [J]. Meteorological Science and Technology (in Chinese), 40(1): 65-73.