1960~2011年江淮地区夏季极端高温日数的特征及成因分析

李纵横; 李崇银; 宋洁; 谭言科; 黎鑫

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.14157

1960~2011年江淮地区夏季极端高温日数的特征及成因分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.14157

1.
解放军理工大学气象海洋学院, 南京 211101
2.
解放军理工大学气象海洋学院, 南京 211101;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
3.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41275086

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-07-26

An Analysis of the Characteristics and Causes of Extremely High Temperature Days in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basins in Summer 1960-2011

1.
Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101
2.
Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

摘要

摘要: 基于江淮地区气象站1960~2011年逐日最高气温资料,分析了江淮地区在北半球夏季极端高温日数的年际变化及其与大气环流场和海温的关系。结果表明在江淮流域极端高温日偏多(少)时,其上空对流层中上层出现了具有正压结构的异常反气旋(气旋)环流,以及热成风涡度平流导致的下沉(上升)运动;亚洲西风急流的位置偏北(南),并且200 hPa经向风场有明显的类似丝绸之路遥相关型的波列结构。在江淮地区极端高温日数偏多(少)的年份,前期的赤道太平洋中部,中国南海、孟加拉湾以及阿拉伯海海温呈现显著的正(负)异常,同期的中国东部海区、南日本海的海温呈现显著的正(负)异常。利用耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中的8个模式的结果,评估了CMIP5模式对中国江淮地区夏季年平均极端高温的模拟效果,在此基础上,对未来极端高温的变化进行了预估。模式结果表明,在RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)2.6情景下,21世纪末江淮地区夏季极端高温日数将可能达20 d左右;在RCP4.5情景下,21世纪末极端高温日数可能达40 d左右;在RCP8.5情景下,21世纪末极端高温日数将可能达约70 d。
- 江淮地区 /
- 极端高温事件 /
- 遥相关 /
- 海温 /
- 预估
Abstract: Based on the highest daily temperature records of boreal summers from 1960 to 2011, this study analyzes interannual variations of the extremely high temperature days (EHTDs) in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins of East China and their associated anomalous atmospheric circulations and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Composite results of the summers in which the occurrence frequencies of EHTDs are higher (lower) than normal show that: (1) There is anomalous quasi-barotropic anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins accompanied with anomalous descending (ascending) motion due to middle and upper troposphere thermal wind vorticity advection; (2) the position of the westerly jet has a northward (southward) displacement and a Silk Road Teleconnection-like wave train is found embedded in the upper troposphere; (3) prior summer, the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, South China Sea, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea feature significantly positive (negative) SSTAs, while at the same time the SSTAs of the East China Sea and South Sea of Japan are significantly positive (negative). This study also evaluates the abilities of eight models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the EHTDs of the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins of East China, and the trend of EHTDs under different future emissions scenarios. The results suggest that the boreal summer EHTDs of the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins could reach about 20 d by the end of the 21st century under the 2.6 W m^-2 representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6), and 40 d and 70 d under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.
- Yangtze-Huaihe River basins /
- Extremely high temperature days /
- Teleconnection /
- SST /
- Forecast

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