基于逐月标准化降水蒸散指数的多尺度方法分析气候变化对澜沧江流域归一化植被指数的影响

刘世梁; 田韫钰; 安南南; 赵海迪; 董世魁

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.14192

基于逐月标准化降水蒸散指数的多尺度方法分析气候变化对澜沧江流域归一化植被指数的影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.14192

北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

基金项目: 环保公益项目 201209029-4

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-09-10
- 修回日期: 2014-12-20

Effects of Climate Change on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Based on the Multiple Analysis of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Methods in the Lancang River Basin

State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

摘要

摘要: 基于澜沧江流域10个气象站点1951～2012年的日降水资料的逐月标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)值、各站1998～2012年流域的归一化植被指数(NDVI)值,利用SPEI以及趋势分析法,多尺度分析了澜沧江流域干旱发生的时间和强度演变特征以及上中下游NDVI时间变化特征,探讨了气候变化对植被变化的影响,并对NDVI与SPEI的变化进行了相关性分析。结果表明,不同站点和不同时间尺度的SPEI值均呈现出干旱化逐年加强的线性趋势,上游相对于中下游干旱态势较轻,且时间尺度越大,干旱波动趋势越明显;在季节尺度上,夏、秋、冬的SPEI值均呈下降趋势,其中冬季干旱最为严重;15年来澜沧江流域各区域年平均NDVI总体表现为先降低后增加,总体植被状况得到改善,其中下游较明显。从年际变化看,对于流域的不同区域,NDVI与不同尺度的SPEI的相关性和滞后性有较大差异,年代际之间的响应规律也不同,中下游的SPEI对同年NDVI的响应比较敏感,而上游则表现出明显的滞后性。说明NDVI对SPEI的响应比较敏感,干旱程度的变化在一定程度上影响着流域的植被状况,SPEI是影响NDVI的因素之一。
- 气候变化 /
- 澜沧江流域 /
- 标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI) /
- 归一化植被指数(NDVI) /
- 相关性
Abstract: The characteristics of drought variations at different timescales in the Lancang River basin from 1951 to 2012 were studied using a new drought index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI). The authors calculated this level from daily precipitation data at 10 meteorological stations. Furthermore, the authors used a time series (1998-2012) data set of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and trend analysis to analyze the inter-annual variation in the valley of the Lancang River and explore the relationship between NDVI and SPEI. The results show that the SPEI values at different sites and time scales showed a significant increased trend to drought, but the upstream situation was much less pronounced than the middle and lower reaches. SPEI values at different time scales vary significantly; the trend of drought is most obvious over a longer time scale. Drought occurred at all seasons—spring, summer, autumn, and winter—but the most serious drought occurred in winter. The regional annual average NDVI in the Lancang River valley decreased first, and the vegetation cover and ecological conditions improved in general. The downstream slope value was the greatest, indicating that vegetative conditions had significantly improved. From the perspective of inter-annual change, the correlation and time lag between the NDVI and SPEI of various scales, and the response varied across the different regions of the basin. In that year, the SPEI and NDVI in the middle and lower reaches showed a swifter response, while there was a significant lag upstream. This result suggests that the response of NDVI for SPEI is sensitive. To some extent, the degree influences vegetation, and SPEI is one of the factors that influences the NDVI.
- Climate change /
- Lancang River valley /
- SPEI /
- NDVI /
- Correlation

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