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利用RHtestsV4软件包对天津1951~2012年逐日气温序列的均一性分析

司鹏 徐文慧

司鹏, 徐文慧. 利用RHtestsV4软件包对天津1951~2012年逐日气温序列的均一性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2015, 20(6): 663-674. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15014
引用本文: 司鹏, 徐文慧. 利用RHtestsV4软件包对天津1951~2012年逐日气温序列的均一性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2015, 20(6): 663-674. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15014
SI Peng, XU Wenhui. Homogenization of Tianjin Daily Surface Air Temperatures by Software Pack RHtestsV4 during 1951-2012[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(6): 663-674. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15014
Citation: SI Peng, XU Wenhui. Homogenization of Tianjin Daily Surface Air Temperatures by Software Pack RHtestsV4 during 1951-2012[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(6): 663-674. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15014

利用RHtestsV4软件包对天津1951~2012年逐日气温序列的均一性分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15014
基金项目: 天津市气象局科研课题项目201302,公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目GYHY201206031

Homogenization of Tianjin Daily Surface Air Temperatures by Software Pack RHtestsV4 during 1951-2012

  • 摘要: 基于国家气象信息中心“基础气象资料建设专项”研制的中国地面历史基础气象资料及台站元数据,利用RHtestV4软件包对天津1951~2012年的历史气温序列进行了均一性分析。结果显示,通过惩罚最大t检验(PMT)方法对12个地面站逐日平均、最高、最低气温序列检验得到,迁站是导致平均气温和最低气温序列突变的主要原因,同类型仪器更换则是导致最高气温序列突变的主要原因,而2005年以后的自动站业务化并没有对天津地区气温序列的均一性造成很大影响。同时,研究中也检验出少部分未知原因的显著间断点,可能是由于观测员的误判或观测仪器翘变等因素造成的历史数据疑误。从订正量来看,逐日平均气温和最高气温序列主要以正偏差订正为主,而最低气温则主要以负偏差订正为主。其中,最高气温序列的分位数匹配(QM)订正量均值最大,90%以上集中在0.1~1.0 ℃,平均气温序列的QM订正量均值相对最小,90%以上的订正量在-0.7~0.7 ℃,而最低气温的订正量90%以上集中在-1.5~1.5 ℃范围中。另外,以Xu et al.(2013)研制的数据集为参照,通过误差分析,发现两类研究得到的年(季节)尺度气温数据具有较高的相符率和一致性,从而可以说明本研究订正后的天津地区1951~2012年逐日气温序列具有一定的可靠性。
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  • 收稿日期:  2015-02-16
  • 修回日期:  2015-05-27

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