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肖晓, 陈文, 范广洲, 周定文. 20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化的外强迫因子分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2016, 21(2): 197-209. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15169
引用本文: 肖晓, 陈文, 范广洲, 周定文. 20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化的外强迫因子分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2016, 21(2): 197-209. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15169
XIAO Xiao, CHEN Wen, FAN Guangzhou, ZHOU Dingwen. Possible External Forcing Factors for the Interdecadal Change in the East Asian Winter Monsoon around the Late 1990s[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2016, 21(2): 197-209. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15169
Citation: XIAO Xiao, CHEN Wen, FAN Guangzhou, ZHOU Dingwen. Possible External Forcing Factors for the Interdecadal Change in the East Asian Winter Monsoon around the Late 1990s[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2016, 21(2): 197-209. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15169

20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化的外强迫因子分析

Possible External Forcing Factors for the Interdecadal Change in the East Asian Winter Monsoon around the Late 1990s

  • 摘要: 使用NCEP/NCAR、英国气象局哈德莱中心(Met Office Hadley Center)HadISST以及NOAA提供的再分析资料分析了海温、海冰及雪盖异常对20世纪90年代末我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风(EAWM)年代际跃变的外部强迫作用,同时也对比分析了20世纪90年代EAWM年代际跃变与20世纪80年代EAWM年代际跃变特征和成因的一些差异。结果表明:20世纪80年代中期EAWM的年代际变化特征主要表现为全国一致偏冷型,同时中国近海的海温也偏低;该年代际变化的主要原因来自大气内部动力过程,而海温和海冰的作用不显著。20世纪90年代末EAWM年代际变化的特征表现为东亚北方气温显著偏冷而南方偏暖的南北反相变化分布;EAWM在20世纪90年代末的年代际变化受北大西洋海温和热带太平洋海温的共同影响。北大西洋显著的异常暖海温,激发一个向下游传播的波列,使得西伯利亚高压加强,EAWM加强,从而导致我国北方气温下降;同时,秋冬季北极海冰异常偏少和秋季欧亚雪盖偏多对东亚冬季风的增强也有一定的作用。此外,热带西太平洋的暖海温异常会导致在海洋性大陆地区有异常的辐合和对流增强,引起大气环流的Gill型响应,对流西侧的异常气旋在孟加拉湾至我国西南地区出现南风异常,使得东亚南部地区温度偏高。因此,20世纪90年代末之后东亚温度呈现南暖北冷的分布特征。

     

    Abstract: In this study, the authors investigate the effects of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and snow cover in the interdecadal change in the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) that occurred around the late 1990s by using reanalysis datasets from NCEP/NCAR, the Met Office Hadley Centre, the NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center, and the Northern Hemisphere snow cover reanalysis product from NOAA. Characteristics of and mechanisms for the interdecadal changes in the EAWM that occurred around mid-1980s (1976-1988) and late 1990s (1999-2012) are also compared. Results indicate that the interdecadal change in the EAWM that occurred around mid-1980s is characterized by negative temperature anomalies over the entire areas of China. The interdecadal change in the EAWM that occurred around mid-1980s is not related to external forcing including SST and sea ice anomalies. Instead, it is attributed to internal atmospheric dynamics. However, the interdecadal change in the EAWM that occurred around the late 1990s may be attributed to external forcing of SST, sea ice and snow cover anomalies in the preceding fall and winter. Particularly, the warmer SST in the late 1990s over the North Atlantic triggered an atmospheric wave train that propagated eastward and reached East Asia. This wave train intensified Siberian high, leading to a stronger EAWM and negative temperature anomalies over northern East Asia. The reduced sea ice anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and the increased snow cover over the Eurasian Continent in the preceding autumn is also a possible reason for the interdecadal change in the EAWM occurred around the late 1990s. In addition, positive SST anomalies over the tropical western Pacific can lead to convergence and enhanced convection over the maritime continent. As a result, cyclonic circulation anomalies over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean developed via a Gill type response. The anomalous southerly winds to the east of the cyclone eventually led to positive temperature anomalies over southern East Asia.

     

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