黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析

刘蓉; 文军; 王欣

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202

黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室, 兰州 730000

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41405017、41405079、41675015，中国科学院重点部署项目KZZD-EW-13

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-08-28

Spatial-Temporal Variation and Abrupt Analysis of Evapotranspiration over the Yellow River Source Region

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Insititude of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000

摘要

摘要: 蒸散发量是流域水文过程的关键因子。由于缺乏区域面上实际蒸散发量的长期观测，很难得到长时间序列的蒸散发时空变化趋势。因此，本研究首先利用架设在黄河源若尔盖地区的涡动相关系统观测的2010年全年的蒸散发资料进行分析，对欧洲中心提供的ERA-interim和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）提供的地表变量再分析数据集进行了局地适用性评估，并依据再分析蒸散数据集，基于统计学方法分析了1979～2014年黄河源区蒸散发量的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明：（1）ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料在黄河源区适用性较好，均方根误差为0.63，NCEP蒸散发再分析资料在4～7月、10～12月模拟值偏高，均方根误差为0.81。（2）进而利用ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料，基于Mann Kendall方法及Sen斜率（Sen's slope estimator）检验法，分析了黄河源区蒸散发量在1979～2014年期间的变化趋势。黄河源区蒸散发量总体上呈现北高南低的年变化趋势，北部兴海-共和-贵德地区增加最为迅速，年变化率在1.5～2.5 mm/a，西南部曲麻莱-治多-玉树地区减少最为明显，变化率为-1.0～-0.5 mm/a，东南部玛沁-玛曲-久治地区蒸散发量的变化在0.5～1.0 mm/a。（3）利用滑动t检验和SQMK（Sequential Mann Kendall）方法检测出发生突变的年份集中在20世纪80年代。
- 黄河源区 /
- 蒸散发 /
- 长时间序列 /
- 趋势
Abstract: Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key factor in the eco-hydrological process on basin scale. However, it is hard to obtain long-term and reliable ET measurement data for a specific watershed. In this study, ET reanalysis products from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were compared to eddy covariance measurements in the Yellow River source region on daily scale. The ERA-Interim reanalysis data was found to have a good agreement with ET measurements in the Yellow River source region with the root mean square error (RMSQ) of 0.63; the NCEP reanalysis data was found to overestimate ET from April to July and from October to December with the RMSQ of 0.81. The Mann Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator test were then applied to quantify the changing trend of ET during 1979-2014 based on the Interim-ET reanalysis products. In general ET increased over the northern region and decreased in the south during the study period. The most rapid increase of 1.5-2.5 mm/a was found in the northern region in Xinhai-Gonghe-Guide, and the most rapid decrease of -1.0--0.5 mm/a was found in the southwestern region in Qumalai-Zhidu-Yushu. In the southeastern region in Maqin-Maqu-Jiuzhi, ET also increased by 0.5-1.0 mm/a. Abrupt ET changes over Yellow River source region mainly occurred in the 1980s based on results of both the moving t test and the sequential Mann Kendall test.
- the Yellow River source region /
- Evapotranspiration /
- Long term /
- Trends

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