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黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析

刘蓉 文军 王欣

刘蓉, 文军, 王欣. 黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2016, 21(5): 503-511. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202
引用本文: 刘蓉, 文军, 王欣. 黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2016, 21(5): 503-511. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202
LIU Rong, WEN Jun, WANG Xin. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Abrupt Analysis of Evapotranspiration over the Yellow River Source Region[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2016, 21(5): 503-511. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202
Citation: LIU Rong, WEN Jun, WANG Xin. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Abrupt Analysis of Evapotranspiration over the Yellow River Source Region[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2016, 21(5): 503-511. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202

黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15202
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41405017、41405079、41675015,中国科学院重点部署项目KZZD-EW-13

Spatial-Temporal Variation and Abrupt Analysis of Evapotranspiration over the Yellow River Source Region

  • 摘要: 蒸散发量是流域水文过程的关键因子。由于缺乏区域面上实际蒸散发量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列的蒸散发时空变化趋势。因此,本研究首先利用架设在黄河源若尔盖地区的涡动相关系统观测的2010年全年的蒸散发资料进行分析,对欧洲中心提供的ERA-interim和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的地表变量再分析数据集进行了局地适用性评估,并依据再分析蒸散数据集,基于统计学方法分析了1979~2014年黄河源区蒸散发量的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明:(1)ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料在黄河源区适用性较好,均方根误差为0.63,NCEP蒸散发再分析资料在4~7月、10~12月模拟值偏高,均方根误差为0.81。(2)进而利用ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料,基于Mann Kendall方法及Sen斜率(Sen's slope estimator)检验法,分析了黄河源区蒸散发量在1979~2014年期间的变化趋势。黄河源区蒸散发量总体上呈现北高南低的年变化趋势,北部兴海-共和-贵德地区增加最为迅速,年变化率在1.5~2.5 mm/a,西南部曲麻莱-治多-玉树地区减少最为明显,变化率为-1.0~-0.5 mm/a,东南部玛沁-玛曲-久治地区蒸散发量的变化在0.5~1.0 mm/a。(3)利用滑动t检验和SQMK(Sequential Mann Kendall)方法检测出发生突变的年份集中在20世纪80年代。
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  • 收稿日期:  2015-08-28

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