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郭燕玲, 赵晶, 周林, 张文煜, 郭振海. 山东半岛风电爬坡事件的识别与天气分析研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(1): 97-107. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16034
引用本文: 郭燕玲, 赵晶, 周林, 张文煜, 郭振海. 山东半岛风电爬坡事件的识别与天气分析研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(1): 97-107. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16034
Yanling GUO, Jing ZHAO, Lin ZHOU, Wenyu ZHANG, Zhenhai GUO. A Study on the Identification and Synoptic Analysis of Wind Ramp Events in Shandong Peninsula[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(1): 97-107. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16034
Citation: Yanling GUO, Jing ZHAO, Lin ZHOU, Wenyu ZHANG, Zhenhai GUO. A Study on the Identification and Synoptic Analysis of Wind Ramp Events in Shandong Peninsula[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(1): 97-107. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16034

山东半岛风电爬坡事件的识别与天气分析研究

A Study on the Identification and Synoptic Analysis of Wind Ramp Events in Shandong Peninsula

  • 摘要: 根据山东省24个风电场2013年全年每15 min的风电输出功率实测数据以及相应的WRF(WeatherResearch and Forecasting)气象预测数据和FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料,分析了区域大规模风电爬坡现象与大尺度天气系统演变的联系。结果显示,大尺度天气系统,特别是阻塞高压系统,是诱发山东地区大规模风电爬坡的重要因素;爬坡事件的预测应当考虑天气演变的因素。进一步结合旋转门(The SwingingDoor,TSD)算法重新讨论了爬坡事件的定义与识别,并在此基础上分析了爬坡事件的特征及其可预报性;并指出风电功率上报、考核制度应当重点考虑爬坡时间段的预测水平,以提高电网运行的稳定性。

     

    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between regional large-scale wind power ramp and large-scale weather system based on real-time 15-min power outputs of 24 wind farms in Shandong Province in 2013 and related WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) forecasting data and the FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis) re-analysis data. Results indicate that large-scale weather systems, especially the blocking high, are the important reason that induces the large-scale wind power ramp in Shandong Province. Using the swinging door algorithm, the wind power ramp events are re-defined and recognized first. The characteristics and predictability of wind power ramp events are then analyzed. It is found that the wind power report-check regulation should seriously consider the forecasting accuracy during the ramp events for the purpose to improve the stability of grid operation.

     

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