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极端高温天气对玉米产量的影响及其与大气环流和海温的关系

周梦子 王会军 霍治国

周梦子, 王会军, 霍治国. 极端高温天气对玉米产量的影响及其与大气环流和海温的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(2): 134-148. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16119
引用本文: 周梦子, 王会军, 霍治国. 极端高温天气对玉米产量的影响及其与大气环流和海温的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(2): 134-148. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16119
Mengzi ZHOU, Huijun WANG, Zhiguo HUO. The Influence of Heat Stress on Maize Yield and Its Association with Atmospheric General Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(2): 134-148. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16119
Citation: Mengzi ZHOU, Huijun WANG, Zhiguo HUO. The Influence of Heat Stress on Maize Yield and Its Association with Atmospheric General Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(2): 134-148. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16119

极端高温天气对玉米产量的影响及其与大气环流和海温的关系

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16119
基金项目: 

中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项基金项目 2016Y007

详细信息
    作者简介:

    周梦子, 女, 1988年出生, 博士, 助理研究员, 主要从事气候变化对农业的影响以及灾害风险评估研究。E-mail:zhoumz@camscma.cn

  • 中图分类号: P49

The Influence of Heat Stress on Maize Yield and Its Association with Atmospheric General Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature

Funds: 

The Basic Research and Operating Expenses of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences 2016Y007

  • 摘要: 高温热害已成为玉米生长过程中的一个重要威胁。本文中,我们定量分析了省份尺度上夏季极端高温日数对玉米产量的影响,结果表明在中国不同省份,当高温指数增加一个标准差时,玉米减产范围为-1.56%~-15.06%,其中以东北、华北地区减产最为严重。进一步分析表明,在1990年代中后期东北、华北极端高温日数显著增加,发生突变。当东北、华北上空500 hPa位势高度场出现正异常时,天气比较晴朗,入射太阳辐射增加,使得地面温度升高,有利于极端高温天气的出现;而风场上,东北地区尤其是黑龙江盛行西风,经向环流减弱,冷空气不易入侵,使得该区温度偏高,华北地区则以偏南风为主,来自中国内陆的温暖气流被带到该地,为极端高温天气的发生创造有利条件。影响东北极端高温天气的关键海域位于黑潮地区,而ENSO对华北极端高温日数的影响更大,当ENSO指数异常偏高时,西太平洋副热带高压偏东,华北水汽输送通道受阻,水汽辐散,且盛行下沉运动,华北地区易出现高温、干旱天气。
  • 图  1  各省份年际增量的高温指数(ΔIheat)和玉米产量(Δy)的相关。深(浅)蓝色为负相关且通过(未通过)0.01的显著性水平检验,红色为正相关,白色为缺测。注:在农业统计年鉴中将四川和重庆作为一个大区进行产量统计

    Figure  1.  The correlation map between year-to-year increment of heat stress index (ΔIheat) and maize yield (Δy) at provincial scales. Dark (light) blue shadings indicate negative values that are statistically significant (insignificant) at the 0.01 level. Red shadings indicate positive correlation, the white represents areas of missing data. Note: Sichuan Province and Chongqing City were taken as one single region for statistical analysis

    图  2  基于Bootsrap重取样方法(抽样1000次)计算的不同省份其高温指数增加一个标准差,产量相对于历史时期(1971~2010)变化的百分比。黑色粗线为中值

    Figure  2.  Box plot of percentage changes in maize yield relative to that during the baseline period (1971-2010) for each standard deviation increase in heat stress index based on Bootstrap resampling of historical data with 1000 samples. The middle vertical line within each box indicates the median value

    图  3  中国东北、华北地区夏季极端高温指数EOF分解的前两个主分量。左图为主模态(EOF1、EOF2),其右上角的数字为对应的解释方差;右图为对应的时间序列(PC1、PC2)

    Figure  3.  Spatial patterns of the first two eigenvectors of the EOF analysis (EOF1, EOF2, left) of heat stress index in Northeast and North China and the corresponding time coefficients (PC1, PC2, right)

    图  4  东北地区极端高温天气在6、7、8月发生的概率

    Figure  4.  The probability of heat stress occurrence in June, July, and August at 10-day interval in Northeast China

    图  5  (a)标准化的东北极端高温指数的时间序列,粗实线为11年滑动平均值。(b)东北极端高温指数Mann-Kendall统计量曲线,UF、UB为基于东北极端高温指数计算的统计量,虚线为0.05显著性水平临界线

    Figure  5.  (a) Time series of normalized heat stress index in Northeast China and the 11-year running mean shown by the black bold line. (b) Mann-Kendall measure curves of heat stress index in Northeast China. Forward (UF) and backward (UB) represent statistic rank series in the Mann-Kendall test from the heat stress index in Northeast China, the dashed lines indicate the critical values for the significance level of 0.05

    图  6  东北地区夏季极端高温日数时间序列的小波变化系数实部的时间—频率分布(左)和小波方差(右)

    Figure  6.  he time-frequency distribution of the real part of wavelet transform coefficient (left) and wavelet variance (right) for heat stress index in Northeast China

    图  7  (a)1971~1997年、(b)1998~2010年东北地区夏季极端高温日数的分布

    Figure  7.  Geographical distributions of heat stress index in summer in Northeast China during (a) 1971-1997 and (b) 1998-2010

    图  8  东北地区极端高温日数偏多、偏少年合成的(a)500 hPa位势高度差值场(单位:gpm)和(b)850 hPa风场差值场(单位:m s-1),阴影区通过0.05显著性水平检验

    Figure  8.  Composite differences in (a) geopotential height (units: gpm) at 500 hPa and (b) wind field (units: m s-1) at 850 hPa between years of higher and lower heat stress indices in Northeast China. The shadings represent values statistically significant at the 0.05 level

    图  9  东北地区夏季极端高温日数与同期海温相关系数的空间分布,深(浅)影区通过0.05(0.1)显著性水平检验

    Figure  9.  Geographical distribution of correlation coefficients between heat stress index and sea surface temperature in summer in Northeast China. Dark (light) shadings indicate values statistically significant at 0.05 (0.1) level

    图  10  图 5,但为华北地区

    Figure  10.  As in Fig. 5, but for North China

    图  11  华北地区极端高温日数偏多、偏少年合成的(a)500 hPa位势高度差值场和(b)1000 hPa经向风差值场,阴影区通过0.05显著性水平检验

    Figure  11.  Composite differences in (a) geopotential height at 500 hPa and (b) meridional wind at 1000 hPa between years of high and low heat stress indices in North China. The shadings indicate the difference statistically significant at the 0.05 level

    图  12  夏季ENSO高、低指数年合成的西太平洋副热带高压位置。红线为ENSO指数偏高年西太平洋副热带高压的位置,蓝线为ENSO指数偏低年西太平洋副热带高压的位置

    Figure  12.  Composites of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in years of high and low ENSO indices. The red lines indicate the WPSH location in high ENSO index years, the blue lines indicate the WPSH location in low ENSO index years

    图  13  夏季ENSO高、低指数年合成的整层水汽(地面到300 hPa)通量的差值场(箭头,单位:kg m-1 s-1)、水汽通量散度的差值场(等值线,单位:10-5 kg m-2 s-1

    Figure  13.  Composite differences in vertically integrated moisture fluxes (units: kg m-1 s-1) and moisture flux divergence (units: 10-5 kg m-2 s-1) between years of high and low ENSO indices

    图  14  经向(34°N~41°N)平均的华北地区夏季ENSO高、低指数年合成的垂直速度差值(等值线,单位:-103 Pa s-1)。矢量箭头为纬向风(单位:m s-1)和垂直风(单位:-103 Pa s-1)的合成场

    Figure  14.  Meridionally mean (34°N-41°N) vertical velocity differences (contours, units:-103 Pa s-1) between years of high and low ENSO indices. Arrows are composites of zonal wind (units: m s-1) and vertical velocity (units:-103 Pa s-1)

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-06-17
  • 网络出版日期:  2016-10-10
  • 刊出日期:  2017-03-20

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