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1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估

王丹 王爱慧

王丹, 王爱慧. 1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(4): 446-462. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122
引用本文: 王丹, 王爱慧. 1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(4): 446-462. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122
Dan WANG, Aihui WANG. Applicability Assessment of GPCC and CRU Precipitation Products in China during 1901 to 2013[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(4): 446-462. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122
Citation: Dan WANG, Aihui WANG. Applicability Assessment of GPCC and CRU Precipitation Products in China during 1901 to 2013[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(4): 446-462. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122

1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0602401

国家自然科学基金项目 41275110

详细信息
    作者简介:

    王丹, 女, 1991年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事气候变化方面的研究。E-mail:wangdan@mail.iap.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    王爱慧, E-mail:wangaihui@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P426.6

Applicability Assessment of GPCC and CRU Precipitation Products in China during 1901 to 2013

Funds: 

National Key Research Project 2016YFA0602401

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41275110

  • 摘要: 利用1901~2013年中国大陆地区的气象台站实测降水资料,对东英吉利(East Anglia)大学气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)和全球降水气候中心(Global Precipitation Climatology Centre,GPCC)的降水资料分别从季节、年际和年代际尺度上进行了评估。结果表明:1961~2013年CRU与GPCC降水资料均能较准确地描述中国大陆地区的降水特征,且在东部较西部地区、夏季较冬季与站点实测降水情况更为一致。将中国大陆划分为不同区域并在其季节、年际和年代际时间尺度上通过比较降水偏差绝对值的百分比、均方根误差和相关系数等统计量后发现:CRU在青藏高原和其它较大的山脉附近与站点实测降水的差别较大,且年均降水趋势在西北一带的阿尔金山脉、黄土高原、东南地区和长江下游地区,比实测降水的年均趋势小、甚至出现趋势相反的情况。此外,CRU降水的年代际变化趋势也偏小。而GPCC数据不论是降水量还是降水趋势都更接近实际情况。在1901~1961年,通过与65个长期气象观测站点的降水时间序列比较发现,CRU在110°E以西地区与站点观测的降水资料间的差别较大,而GPCC与站点观测资料的吻合较好。最后,利用1961~2013年两套降水资料和站点实测资料分别计算了标准化降水指数(SPI),简单分析了中国大陆地区的干旱变化,发现GPCC对旱涝的时空变化特征的描述比CRU更接近站点实际观测;并且CRU也没有反映出1997年夏季中国地区出现的严重干旱情况,而GPCC较为准确地反映出了这一干旱事件特征。因此,本文的研究结果认为,就中国大陆地区长时期降水资料而言,GPCC的适用性优于CRU。
  • 图  1  长期仪器记录的气候数据库中65个气象台站的分布和地形高度(单位:m)。黑线矩形框将全国分为7个区域:西北地区(NW:35.75°N~49.25°N,73.75°E~108.75°E)、西南地区(SW:21.25°N~35.75°N,97.75°E~108.75°E)、东北地区(NE:42.25°N~53.75°N,108.75°E~135.25°E)、华北地区(NC:35.25°N~42.25°N,108.75°E~128.75°E)、长江流域(YZ:27.75°N~35.25°N,108.75°E~123.25°E)、华南地区(SE:18.25°N~27.75°N,108.75°E~120.25°E)、青藏高原地区(TIBET:26.75°N~35.75°N,77.25 °E~97.75°E)

    Figure  1.  Locations of 65 rain gauge stations for long-term observations in the climatic database of China and their elevations (m). The black boxes indicate the seven subregions of China: Northwest China (NW: 35.75°N-49.25°N, 73.75°E-108.75°E), Southwest China (SW: 21.25°N-35.75°N, 97.75°E-108.75°E), Northeast China (NE: 42.25°N-53.75°N, 108.75°E-135.25°E), North China (NC: 35.25°N-42.25°N, 108.75°E-128.75°E), the Yangtze River valley (YZ: 27.75°N-35.25°N, 108.75°E-123.25°E), Southeast China (SE: 18.25°N-27.75°N, 108.75°E-120.25°E), and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TIBET: 26.75°N-35.75°N, 77.25°E-97.75°E)

    图  2  多年平均(1961~2013年)的(a、c、e)CRU与CN05.1和(b、d、f)CPCC与CN05.1降水量的偏差(单位:mm/d,黑点表示通过99%的显著性检验):(a、b)年均;(c、d)夏季平均;(e、f)冬季平均

    Figure  2.  Spatial distributions of long-term (1961-2013) mean precipitation differences (mm/d) (a, c, e) between CRU (Climatic Research Unit) and CN05.1 data and (b, d, f) between GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and CN05.1 data in China: (a, b) Annual; (c, d) summer; (e, f) winter. The black dotted areas indicate the differences pass the 99% confidence level

    图  3  CN05.1(左)、CRU(中)和GPCC(右)三套降水数据在1961~2013年线性趋势(单位:mm/a,黑点表示通过95%置信检验):(a、b、c)年均降水;(d、e、f)夏季平均降水;(g、h、i)冬季平均降水

    Figure  3.  Linear trends of annual mean precipitation (mm/a) during 1961-2013 from CN05.1 (left colum), CRU (middle column), and GPCC (right column) data: (a, b, c) Annual; (d, e, f) summer; (g, h, i) winter. The black dots indicate the trends pass the 95% confidence level test

    图  4  1961~2013年CN05.1、CRU、GPCC三套数据年降水量在不同地区和不同年代的线性趋势(单位:mm/a):(a)1961~1970年;(b)1971~1980年;(c)1981~1990年;(d)1991~2000年;(e)2001~2013年

    Figure  4.  Annual precipitation trends (mm/a) from CN05.1, CRU, and GPCC data over different regions in each decade for 1961-2013: (a) 1961-1970; (b) 1971-1980; (c) 1981-1990; (d) 1991-2000; (e) 2001-2013

    图  5  检验资料(CRU和GPCC)与参考资料在65个站点上多年平均(1901~1961年)降水量的泰勒图:(a)年平均;(b)冬季;(c)夏季

    Figure  5.  Taylor diagrams for long term (1901-1961) averaged precipitation at 65 rain gauge stations: (a) Annual; (b) winter; (c) summer

    图  6  华北地区5个站点年均降水量距平(单位:mm/d)的时间序列:(a)呼和浩特(13号站);(b)榆林(15号站);(c)太原(16号站);(d)沈阳(19号站);(e)北京(20号站)。图的左上角标明三类降水资料的多年年均降水量

    Figure  6.  Time series of annual mean precipitation anomaly (mm/d) at five stations in Northeast China: (a) Huhehaote station (No.13); (b) Yulin station (No.15); (c) Taiyuan station (No.16); (d) Shenyang station (No.19); (e) Beijing station (No.20). The long term annual mean precipitation derived from the three datasets are also shown in the upper left cornor of each panel

    图  7  1961~2013年(时间尺度为3月)(a)CN05.1月平均降水计算的SPI的线性趋势分布以及(b)CRU计算的SPI线性趋势、(c)GPCC计算的SPI线性趋势分别与CN05.1的计算的SPI线性趋势的偏差的空间分布

    Figure  7.  (a) Linear trends of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) at 3-month time scale in China from 1961 to 2013 based on CN05.1 data, and differences in the SPI trends between (b) CRU and CN05.1 data, (c) GPCC and CN05.1 data

    图  8  1997年8月(时间尺度为3月)(a)CN05.1月平均降水计算的标准降水指数SPI以及(b)CRU计算的SPI、(c)GPCC计算的SPI与CN05.1的月平均降水计算的SPI的偏差的空间分布

    Figure  8.  (a) SPI (3-month time scale) based on CN05.1 data, and the differences of CPI (b) between CN05.1 and CRU data and (c) between CN05.1 and GPCC data in August 1997

    表  1  区域加权平均的各统计量:CN05.1的年均降水量、CN05.1分别与CRU和GPCC的降水偏差、降水偏差绝对值的百分比、均方根误差和相关系数

    Table  1.   Statistics of area-weighted averages: CN05.1 annual precipitation, precipitation deviations, percentages of absolute deviation, root-mean-square errors and correlation coefficients between CN05.1 and the two products of CRU and GPCC

    CN05.1年降水量/mm d-1与CN05.1的降水偏差/ mm d-1与CN05.1的降水偏差绝对值的百分比与CN05.1的均方根误差/ mm d-1与CN05.1的相关系数
    CRUGPCCRUGPCCRUGPCCRUGPC
    西北地区0.48-0.08-0.1240.34%31.89%0.180.150.680.80
    西南地区2.74-0.23-0.1215.15%11.01%0.450.330.700.87
    东北地区1.28-0.04-0.0611.28%9.67%0.180.140.790.88
    华北地区1.52-0.06-0.0311.99%8.72%0.220.160.820.92
    长江流域3.22-0.14-0.039.53%6.61%0.390.260.820.94
    华南地区4.55-0.07-0.138.57%6.86%0.500.370.850.94
    青藏高原地区1.070.290.2467.79%59.97%0.650.610.550.62
    全国1.72-0.04-0.0428.84%23.28%0.350.280.720.83
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  CN05.1、CRU、GPCC三套降水数据的区域面积加权平均的年均降水线性回归系数

    Table  2.   The area-weighted average of the annual precipitation's linear regression coefficients from CN05.1, CRU, and GPCC data

    区域面积加权平均的年均降水线性回归系数
    CN05.1CRUGPCC
    西北地区0.520.380.57
    西南地区-0.99-0.71-0.80
    东北地区0.25*0.26*0.24*
    华北地区-0.22*-0.50-0.66
    长江流域0.60*0.41*0.40*
    华南地区1.711.200.97*
    青藏高原地区0.710.660.58
    全国0.300.220.22
    *表示通过95%的显著性检验
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2016-06-20
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-01-06
  • 刊出日期:  2017-07-20

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