1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估

王丹; 王爱慧

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122

1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16122

王丹^{1, 2,},
王爱慧^2, ,

1.
成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 成都 610225
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心, 北京 100029

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0602401

国家自然科学基金项目 41275110

详细信息

作者简介:
王丹, 女, 1991年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事气候变化方面的研究。E-mail:wangdan@mail.iap.ac.cn

通讯作者:
王爱慧, E-mail:wangaihui@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P426.6
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-06-20
- 网络出版日期: 2017-01-06
- 刊出日期: 2017-07-20

Applicability Assessment of GPCC and CRU Precipitation Products in China during 1901 to 2013

Dan WANG^{1, 2
,},
Aihui WANG^{2
, ,}

1.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Funds:

National Key Research Project 2016YFA0602401

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41275110

摘要

摘要: 利用1901~2013年中国大陆地区的气象台站实测降水资料，对东英吉利（East Anglia）大学气候研究中心（Climatic Research Unit，CRU）和全球降水气候中心（Global Precipitation Climatology Centre，GPCC）的降水资料分别从季节、年际和年代际尺度上进行了评估。结果表明：1961~2013年CRU与GPCC降水资料均能较准确地描述中国大陆地区的降水特征，且在东部较西部地区、夏季较冬季与站点实测降水情况更为一致。将中国大陆划分为不同区域并在其季节、年际和年代际时间尺度上通过比较降水偏差绝对值的百分比、均方根误差和相关系数等统计量后发现：CRU在青藏高原和其它较大的山脉附近与站点实测降水的差别较大，且年均降水趋势在西北一带的阿尔金山脉、黄土高原、东南地区和长江下游地区，比实测降水的年均趋势小、甚至出现趋势相反的情况。此外，CRU降水的年代际变化趋势也偏小。而GPCC数据不论是降水量还是降水趋势都更接近实际情况。在1901~1961年，通过与65个长期气象观测站点的降水时间序列比较发现，CRU在110°E以西地区与站点观测的降水资料间的差别较大，而GPCC与站点观测资料的吻合较好。最后，利用1961~2013年两套降水资料和站点实测资料分别计算了标准化降水指数（SPI），简单分析了中国大陆地区的干旱变化，发现GPCC对旱涝的时空变化特征的描述比CRU更接近站点实际观测；并且CRU也没有反映出1997年夏季中国地区出现的严重干旱情况，而GPCC较为准确地反映出了这一干旱事件特征。因此，本文的研究结果认为，就中国大陆地区长时期降水资料而言，GPCC的适用性优于CRU。
- 中国区域 /
- 观测降水 /
- GPCC(Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) /
- CRU(Climatic Research Unit) /
- 资料评估
Abstract: Two gridded precipitation datasets from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) are evaluated using the station-observed precipitation over China for the period of 1901-2013 at the seasonal, annual, and interdecadal time scales, respectively. The main results are:Firstly, for the period of 1961-2013, both CRU and GPCC products are able to describe the temporal-spatial variation of precipitation in China, and both show a better performance in eastern China than in western China and in summer than in winter. On the annual and seasonal time scales, comprehensive comparisons are also performed through analyzing the percentages of absolute deviation, the root-mean-square errors, and the correlation coefficients between two products with the station observations. It is found that the CRU data shows large biases in the Tibetan Plateau and some other areas of large mountains, and the annual precipitation trend derived from CRU data is also smaller than that from station observations over areas such as the Altun Shan Mai, the Loess Plateau, southeastern China, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, while GPCC data is relatively more consistent with the station observations in both precipitation amount and trend. Secondly, for the period of 1901-1961, in-situ observed precipitation at 65 stations are used to compare with CRU and GPCC products. It is found that CRU shows large deficiencies to the west of 110°E in the arid and simi-arid regions in China, while GPCC agrees well with observations. Finally, the two gridded datasets and station observations for the period of 1961-2013 are used to compute the standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is then used to describe the degree of aridity in China. The results show that the GPCC is closer to the observations than CRU in terms of the dry and wet events variations in China. For instance, GPCC can capture the severe drought in the summer of 1997, but CRU cannot. In summary, this study suggests that GPCC is a better choices compared to CRU for studying the long-term precipitation trend in China.
- China /
- Station-observation /
- GPCC(Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) /
- CRU(Climatic Research Unit) /
- Evaluation

HTML全文

图 1 长期仪器记录的气候数据库中65个气象台站的分布和地形高度（单位：m）。黑线矩形框将全国分为7个区域：西北地区（NW：35.75°N~49.25°N，73.75°E~108.75°E）、西南地区（SW：21.25°N~35.75°N，97.75°E~108.75°E）、东北地区（NE：42.25°N~53.75°N，108.75°E~135.25°E）、华北地区（NC：35.25°N~42.25°N，108.75°E~128.75°E）、长江流域（YZ：27.75°N~35.25°N，108.75°E~123.25°E）、华南地区（SE：18.25°N~27.75°N，108.75°E~120.25°E）、青藏高原地区（TIBET：26.75°N~35.75°N，77.25 °E~97.75°E）

Figure 1. Locations of 65 rain gauge stations for long-term observations in the climatic database of China and their elevations (m). The black boxes indicate the seven subregions of China: Northwest China (NW: 35.75°N-49.25°N, 73.75°E-108.75°E), Southwest China (SW: 21.25°N-35.75°N, 97.75°E-108.75°E), Northeast China (NE: 42.25°N-53.75°N, 108.75°E-135.25°E), North China (NC: 35.25°N-42.25°N, 108.75°E-128.75°E), the Yangtze River valley (YZ: 27.75°N-35.25°N, 108.75°E-123.25°E), Southeast China (SE: 18.25°N-27.75°N, 108.75°E-120.25°E), and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TIBET: 26.75°N-35.75°N, 77.25°E-97.75°E)

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图 2 多年平均（1961~2013年）的（a、c、e）CRU与CN05.1和（b、d、f）CPCC与CN05.1降水量的偏差（单位：mm/d，黑点表示通过99%的显著性检验）：（a、b）年均；（c、d）夏季平均；（e、f）冬季平均

Figure 2. Spatial distributions of long-term (1961-2013) mean precipitation differences (mm/d) (a, c, e) between CRU (Climatic Research Unit) and CN05.1 data and (b, d, f) between GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and CN05.1 data in China: (a, b) Annual; (c, d) summer; (e, f) winter. The black dotted areas indicate the differences pass the 99% confidence level

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图 3 CN05.1（左）、CRU（中）和GPCC（右）三套降水数据在1961~2013年线性趋势（单位：mm/a，黑点表示通过95%置信检验）：（a、b、c）年均降水；（d、e、f）夏季平均降水；（g、h、i）冬季平均降水

Figure 3. Linear trends of annual mean precipitation (mm/a) during 1961-2013 from CN05.1 (left colum), CRU (middle column), and GPCC (right column) data: (a, b, c) Annual; (d, e, f) summer; (g, h, i) winter. The black dots indicate the trends pass the 95% confidence level test

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图 4 1961~2013年CN05.1、CRU、GPCC三套数据年降水量在不同地区和不同年代的线性趋势（单位：mm/a）：（a）1961~1970年；（b）1971~1980年；（c）1981~1990年；（d）1991~2000年；（e）2001~2013年

Figure 4. Annual precipitation trends (mm/a) from CN05.1, CRU, and GPCC data over different regions in each decade for 1961-2013: (a) 1961-1970; (b) 1971-1980; (c) 1981-1990; (d) 1991-2000; (e) 2001-2013

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图 5 检验资料（CRU和GPCC）与参考资料在65个站点上多年平均（1901~1961年）降水量的泰勒图：（a）年平均；（b）冬季；（c）夏季

Figure 5. Taylor diagrams for long term (1901-1961) averaged precipitation at 65 rain gauge stations: (a) Annual; (b) winter; (c) summer

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图 6 华北地区5个站点年均降水量距平（单位：mm/d）的时间序列：（a）呼和浩特（13号站）；（b）榆林（15号站）；（c）太原（16号站）；（d）沈阳（19号站）；（e）北京（20号站）。图的左上角标明三类降水资料的多年年均降水量

Figure 6. Time series of annual mean precipitation anomaly (mm/d) at five stations in Northeast China: (a) Huhehaote station (No.13); (b) Yulin station (No.15); (c) Taiyuan station (No.16); (d) Shenyang station (No.19); (e) Beijing station (No.20). The long term annual mean precipitation derived from the three datasets are also shown in the upper left cornor of each panel

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图 7 1961~2013年（时间尺度为3月）（a）CN05.1月平均降水计算的SPI的线性趋势分布以及（b）CRU计算的SPI线性趋势、（c）GPCC计算的SPI线性趋势分别与CN05.1的计算的SPI线性趋势的偏差的空间分布

Figure 7. (a) Linear trends of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) at 3-month time scale in China from 1961 to 2013 based on CN05.1 data, and differences in the SPI trends between (b) CRU and CN05.1 data, (c) GPCC and CN05.1 data

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图 8 1997年8月（时间尺度为3月）（a）CN05.1月平均降水计算的标准降水指数SPI以及（b）CRU计算的SPI、（c）GPCC计算的SPI与CN05.1的月平均降水计算的SPI的偏差的空间分布

Figure 8. (a) SPI (3-month time scale) based on CN05.1 data, and the differences of CPI (b) between CN05.1 and CRU data and (c) between CN05.1 and GPCC data in August 1997

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表 1 区域加权平均的各统计量：CN05.1的年均降水量、CN05.1分别与CRU和GPCC的降水偏差、降水偏差绝对值的百分比、均方根误差和相关系数

Table 1. Statistics of area-weighted averages: CN05.1 annual precipitation, precipitation deviations, percentages of absolute deviation, root-mean-square errors and correlation coefficients between CN05.1 and the two products of CRU and GPCC

CN05.1年降水量/mm d^-1		与CN05.1的降水偏差/ mm d^-1		与CN05.1的降水偏差绝对值的百分比		与CN05.1的均方根误差/ mm d^-1		与CN05.1的相关系数
CN05.1年降水量/mm d^-1		CRU	GPC	CRU	GPC	CRU	GPC	CRU	GPC
西北地区	0.48	－0.08	－0.12	40.34%	31.89%	0.18	0.15	0.68	0.80
西南地区	2.74	－0.23	－0.12	15.15%	11.01%	0.45	0.33	0.70	0.87
东北地区	1.28	－0.04	－0.06	11.28%	9.67%	0.18	0.14	0.79	0.88
华北地区	1.52	－0.06	－0.03	11.99%	8.72%	0.22	0.16	0.82	0.92
长江流域	3.22	－0.14	－0.03	9.53%	6.61%	0.39	0.26	0.82	0.94
华南地区	4.55	－0.07	－0.13	8.57%	6.86%	0.50	0.37	0.85	0.94
青藏高原地区	1.07	0.29	0.24	67.79%	59.97%	0.65	0.61	0.55	0.62
全国	1.72	－0.04	－0.04	28.84%	23.28%	0.35	0.28	0.72	0.83

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表 2 CN05.1、CRU、GPCC三套降水数据的区域面积加权平均的年均降水线性回归系数

Table 2. The area-weighted average of the annual precipitation's linear regression coefficients from CN05.1, CRU, and GPCC data

	区域面积加权平均的年均降水线性回归系数
	CN05.1	CRU	GPCC
西北地区	0.52	0.38	0.57
西南地区	-0.99	-0.71	-0.80
东北地区	0.25^*	0.26^*	0.24^*
华北地区	-0.22^*	-0.50	-0.66
长江流域	0.60^*	0.41^*	0.40^*
华南地区	1.71	1.20	0.97^*
青藏高原地区	0.71	0.66	0.58
全国	0.30	0.22	0.22
^*表示通过95%的显著性检验

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