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1991~2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析

孔锋 吕丽莉 方建

孔锋, 吕丽莉, 方建. 1991~2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(3): 355-364. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16139
引用本文: 孔锋, 吕丽莉, 方建. 1991~2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(3): 355-364. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16139
Feng KONG, Lili LÜ, Jian FANG. Spatiotemporal Pattern of Hourly Heavy Rainfall in China and Its Spatial Correlation with Urbanization Factors during 1991-2010[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(3): 355-364. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16139
Citation: Feng KONG, Lili LÜ, Jian FANG. Spatiotemporal Pattern of Hourly Heavy Rainfall in China and Its Spatial Correlation with Urbanization Factors during 1991-2010[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(3): 355-364. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16139

1991~2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16139
基金项目: 

中国气象局气象软科学项目 2017 [36]

中国气象局气象软科学项目 2017 [21]

国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目 41621061

国家自然科学基金 41601569

详细信息
    作者简介:

    孔锋, 男, 1986年出生, 博士, 工程师, 主要从事自然灾害与环境演变的研究。E-mail: kongfeng0824@foxmail.com

  • 中图分类号: P468.0+24

Spatiotemporal Pattern of Hourly Heavy Rainfall in China and Its Spatial Correlation with Urbanization Factors during 1991-2010

Funds: 

Meteorological Soft Science of China Meteorological Administration 2017 [36]

Meteorological Soft Science of China Meteorological Administration 2017 [21]

Science Fund of Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China 41621061

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41601569

  • 摘要: 采用1991~2010年小时降水数据对中国小时暴雨雨量和雨时进行研究。结果表明,在时间上,1991~2010年中国小时暴雨雨量和雨时的年累计值在波动中呈明显增加趋势。在空间上,小时暴雨雨量和雨时的高值区主要集中在中国黑龙江漠河—云南腾冲一线的东部地区,该界线以西则是低值地区,其中小时暴雨变化最为显著地区主要集中在中国东南沿海地区和西北内陆地区。中国白昼和夜晚的小时暴雨雨量和雨时在空间分布上也有类似的规律。在日变化的时间尺度上,小时暴雨雨量和雨时呈现出双峰现象,最高值均出现在17:00(北京时间,下同),而最低值出现在12:00。同时选择表征城镇化发展水平的夜晚灯光指数、黑炭气溶胶、低能见度日数和细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度4个因子,分别与小时暴雨雨量和雨时做空间相关分析。在全国平均水平上,4个空间相关系数均在波动中呈明显增加趋势;而在中国气候变化区划一级分区上,空间相关系数均呈增加趋势,且增加趋势最为明显的是Ⅱ分区和Ⅲ分区。
  • 图  1  1961~2010年中国气候变化区划

    Figure  1.  Climate change regionalization in China from 1961 to 2010

    图  2  中国(a)1991~2000年、(b)2001~2010年年代际小时暴雨雨量总和;(c)2001~2010年年代际小时暴雨雨量总和减去1991~2000年年代际小时暴雨雨量总和;(d)1991~2010年年际小时暴雨雨量变化

    Figure  2.  (a) Decadal heavy rainfall amount from 1991 to 2000, (b) decadal heavy rainfall amount from 2001 to 2010, (c) the difference in decadal heavy rainfall amount between 2001–2010 and 1991–2000, (d) annual changes in hourly heavy rainfall amount from 1991 to 2010 in China

    图  3  图 2,但为小时暴雨雨时

    Figure  3.  Same as Fig. 2, but for the hourly heavy rainfall hours

    图  4  中国1991~2010年(a)白天小时暴雨雨量总和、(b)夜晚小时暴雨雨量总和、(c)白天小时暴雨雨量总和减去夜晚小时暴雨雨量总和、(d)小时暴雨雨量日变化、(e)小时总降雨雨量日变化

    Figure  4.  (a) Day time heavy rainfall amounts, (b) night time heavy rainfall amounts, (c) difference of heavy rainfall amounts between day time and night time, (d) diurnal change of hourly heavy rainfall amounts, and (e) diurnal change of hourly total rainfall amounts from 1991 to 2010 in China

    图  5  图 4,但为昼夜小时暴雨雨时

    Figure  5.  Same as Fig. 4, but for the hourly heavy rainfall hours

    图  6  中国整体水平的(a)小时暴雨雨量和(b)小时暴雨雨时与4个城镇化因子的逐年空间相关

    Figure  6.  Spatial correlation between (a) hourly heavy rainfall amount and (b) hourly heavy rainfall hours and four urbanization factors over entire China

    表  1  中国气候变化区划一级分区水平的小时暴雨雨量和小时暴雨雨时与4个城镇化因子的逐年空间相关系数的趋势

    Table  1.   The tendency of spatial correlation between hourly heavy rainfall amount and heavy rainfall hours and four urbanization factors at the first level of climate change regionalization in China

    城镇化指标因子 相关系数趋势
    小时暴雨雨量 小时暴雨雨时
    夜晚灯光指数 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0
    黑炭气溶胶AOD 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0
    低能见度日数 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.01 0 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.01 0
    PM2.5浓度 0.03 0.05 0.03 0 0 0.03 0.05 0.03 0 0
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-07-19
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-02-10
  • 刊出日期:  2017-05-20

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